Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xccc46bc703e8030b9928f96350adc95f2ce73920c10a33b05aa47820dc49071c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,979
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,643
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,979 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed No | 7c | 3,768$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.33 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 59c | 393.46$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.74 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 65c | 300.96$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.69 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 15c | 264.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 32c | 236$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.13 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 7c | 223.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 28c | 210.36$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.46 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 29c | 210.32$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.59 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 51c | 204.65$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.21 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 22c | 192.84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.49 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 42c | 185.04$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.42 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 54c | 181.83$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.85 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 42c | 146.66$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.55 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 137.88$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.21 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 49c | 132.65$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.65 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 56c | 114.55$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.75 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 63c | 110$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 10c | 106.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 42c | 105.87$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 57c | 103.55$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.94 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 43c | 102.51$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 72c | 99.9$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 49c | 93.19$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.07 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 48c | 83.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…c275backed Yes | 73c | 82.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 68c | 75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 54c | 75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 46c | 65.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed Yes | 65c | 64.83$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31de…03ffbacked Yes | 78c | 59.16$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 49 | 91.8%45 W · 4 L | +18.2wins | +0.37per pick | 55cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 77+0.25 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 28c | 56.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked No | 34c | 52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13c1…3365backed Yes | 53c | 47.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 49c | 47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 41c | 44.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 49c | 40.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 33c | 39.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…57c3backed No | 33c | 39.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -16.9wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 54c | 37.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 55c | 37.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 61c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25b2…4edbbacked No | 45c | 35.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc4df…b0d4backed No | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…a5fbbacked Yes | 58c | 34.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 46c | 32.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 35c | 30.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…8110backed No | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed Yes | 73c | 27.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 52c | 27.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 45c | 26.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 47c | 26.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 44c | 25.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 55c | 24.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 46c | 22.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed Yes | 54c | 21.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 77c | 21.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec3…acbabacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 57c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 68c | 15.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.