Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3dba81bf2cd9faba466482a3c6c4fad94dcacbc9472a70d7a7118af8b0ca1385
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,680
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,456
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,680 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed Yes | 3c | 1,552$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 250.83$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.13 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 24c | 241.25$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.9 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 23c | 220.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.03 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 77c | 199.98$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 197.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 7c | 192.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 10c | 155.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 79c | 136.96$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 12c | 134.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 100.32$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 16c | 86.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 82.24$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 14c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 26c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 78c | 73.94$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 23c | 73.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 22c | 71.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 19c | 70.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 66.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 78c | 65.84$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 64.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 16c | 64.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 22c | 64.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 19c | 57.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 77c | 51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 26c | 49.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 22c | 45.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 35c | 42.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 76c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 28.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 72c | 28.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 79c | 25.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 75c | 23.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 75c | 23.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 79c | 22.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 20.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f7…b1a8backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 65 | 66.2%43 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 61c | 17.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 76c | 14.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x232a…4895backed No | 76c | 13.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -9.8wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.