Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xccd0fe5428fd00beeb69934d7d6bf4540d831b72429f646fed2c19ea12dae6a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,117
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,534
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,117 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 3c | 2,653$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,572.96 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ec…8b90backed Yes | 1c | 2,400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed Yes | 6c | 1,250$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +12.2wins | +0.18per pick | 26cpaid | +201.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed No | 77c | 600.36$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.58 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked No | 3c | 500$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 14c | 499.47$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.27 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd6…686fbacked Yes | 46c | 483.43$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed No | 6c | 342.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.49 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 6c | 310$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.08 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 23c | 255.65$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.81 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 240.37$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 15c | 231.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 51c | 205.55$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.43 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 48c | 201.27$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.52 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 78c | 189.18$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.22 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 74c | 177.43$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.57 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba44…04d4backed Yes | 72c | 169.88$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed No | 42c | 159.14$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.3 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | +15.1wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +161.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed No | 19c | 156.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.26 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 80c | 150.51$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.41 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 11c | 145.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.75 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 71c | 143.88$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.1 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 23c | 142.62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.14 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…1a53backed No | 24c | 137.06$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.3 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed Yes | 78c | 135.38$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.15 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 22c | 109.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.38 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 63c | 107.74$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.79 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 52c | 105.57$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.16 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 24c | 104.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…45f7backed Yes | 77c | 104.14$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 60cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 13c | 103.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.9 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 75c | 100.5$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 28c | 90$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.67 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 28c | 87.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 53c | 86.39$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.51 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 65c | 85.81$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked No | 30c | 70.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.51 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 17c | 70.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.59 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 53c | 69.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 43c | 65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 31c | 64.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 54c | 63.58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 25c | 62.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked Yes | 18c | 62.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 19c | 59.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef33…6be3backed No | 69c | 58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +530.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 36c | 50.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 79c | 48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 42.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…80c0backed Yes | 78c | 42.04$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 30 | 83.3%25 W · 5 L | +5.7wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 40c | 36.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked No | 28c | 35.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 58c | 31.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 75c | 26.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 38c | 26.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed No | 64c | 26.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…b552backed Yes | 77c | 25.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 80c | 24.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 78c | 24.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 76c | 22.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 65c | 18.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb5…0200backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on June 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.