Earnings · resolved market
Will O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xccdaf2f6e8a7eefb91d6adf1053549b4cd037cce9f7d1376869186e49bf52eff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,034
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,081
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,034 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd42…8895backed Yes | 9c | 1,332$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.88 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 13cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 32c | 649.95$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.97 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5400…1342backed No | 33c | 477.19$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.73 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…7690backed Yes | 68c | 411.41$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.95 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6a…2dcfbacked Yes | 73c | 411.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 19c | 403$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.37 | 760 | 37.6%286 W · 474 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 79c | 299.99$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 31c | 254.84$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.02 | 207 | 42%87 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 27c | 200$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.5 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 25c | 196.06$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.05 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 8c | 156$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked Yes | 8c | 156$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f4…bf68backed Yes | 70c | 143.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -8.2wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1fef…3589backed No | 34c | 130.38$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 29c | 125$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.75 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -20%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 67c | 124.31$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.6 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b98…5cfabacked Yes | 73c | 111$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.03 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26a4…5593backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -8.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a28…aa5cbacked No | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 27c | 97.61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.29 | 69 | 14.5%10 W · 59 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -62%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 28c | 92.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.16 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked No | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.29 | 108 | 21.3%23 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1e…0a48backed Yes | 66c | 77.14$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cc…8072backed No | 36c | 76.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbae7…80fcbacked No | 28c | 74.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.74 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f3…65b9backed Yes | 72c | 73.96$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1772…3281backed Yes | 71c | 70.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c06…67b6backed No | 29c | 67.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.94 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4670…5f1cbacked Yes | 74c | 67.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa195…24fcbacked No | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2455…a70fbacked No | 55c | 54.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 32 | 87.5%28 W · 4 L | +12.8wins | +0.40per pick | 48cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 75+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed No | 30c | 52.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1a…7ddebacked Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed No | 30c | 45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…5f3ebacked Yes | 71c | 43.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked No | 25c | 43.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 66c | 43.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7809…e895backed Yes | 68c | 34.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b8…1133backed Yes | 74c | 31.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…74dcbacked No | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 262 | 50.4%132 W · 130 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed No | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…4323backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…d53abacked Yes | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31f5…89d1backed Yes | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17c0…adcabacked Yes | 73c | 20.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…abe1backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x413d…0db8backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…21f7backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 40cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad10…f1bcbacked Yes | 72c | 19.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50aa…41e6backed Yes | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 71cpaid | -54%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ece…e1f4backed Yes | 72c | 16.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.