MLB · resolved market
Spread: Athletics (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd3b2635b13938dfaeedf3d34fed5f5e25975fe3790671b82771d36cd01bf7ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Colorado Rockiesof Athletics, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,811
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,969
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,811 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Athletics | 42c | 3,169$1,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,332.23 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Colorado Rockies | 55c | 2,326$1,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,041.3 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Colorado Rockies | 50c | 644.52$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.59 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Colorado Rockies | 61c | 596.54$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.24 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Colorado Rockies | 79c | 512.05$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.53 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Athletics | 39c | 490.32$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.48 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61cd…541ebacked Colorado Rockies | 63c | 400$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.12 | 148 | 64.2%95 W · 53 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Athletics | 41c | 263.01$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.68 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Colorado Rockies | 63c | 262.45$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.27 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Athletics | 56c | 252.86$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.6 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Colorado Rockies | 62c | 249.51$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.02 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Colorado Rockies | 50c | 239.95$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.5 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Athletics | 33c | 217.57$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.03 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69e4…9bacbacked Colorado Rockies | 59c | 216.24$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.61 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Athletics | 35c | 200.07$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.55 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Athletics | 31c | 145.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.37 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Athletics | 25c | 120.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Athletics | 44c | 120$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Colorado Rockies | 51c | 98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 158 | 48.7%77 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f2…a6fabacked Athletics | 13c | 83.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Athletics | 35c | 74.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Colorado Rockies | 62c | 64.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Colorado Rockies | 79c | 60.47$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Athletics | 43c | 55.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Athletics | 38c | 50.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Athletics | 28c | 46.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Athletics | 26c | 43.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Athletics | 29c | 40.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Athletics | 38c | 35.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Athletics | 42c | 34.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed Colorado Rockies | 61c | 32.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Colorado Rockies | 69c | 26.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf610…741cbacked Colorado Rockies | 57c | 25.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 253 | 57.3%145 W · 108 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b92…93afbacked Colorado Rockies | 52c | 20.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 420 | 41.9%176 W · 244 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Colorado Rockies | 70c | 17.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. AthleticsAthletics won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 15.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 16.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 17.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Athletics (-4.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.