Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcda9530ff86c6e9ba2ce6fd168fe3968f944bf2c57539e853223e1f9653e2f70
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,239
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,782
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,239 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 40c | 1,192$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.33 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 60c | 600$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…886abacked No | 68c | 423$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.35 | 72 | 81.9%59 W · 13 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 40c | 260.25$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.98 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 59c | 221$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.61 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 33c | 164$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.51 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 64c | 163.81$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 63c | 163$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.96 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed No | 69c | 145.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.38 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 66c | 133.1$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.94 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 30c | 110.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 106.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 59c | 89.49$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 44c | 82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.08 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 66c | 75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 60c | 65.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 17c | 62.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 60c | 62$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 59c | 59.89$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 39c | 58.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 35c | 53.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 37c | 53.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed Yes | 38c | 53.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 34c | 51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb5…3b48backed No | 60c | 45.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked No | 66c | 39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 62c | 37.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 33c | 34.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 28.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 63c | 28.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9077…9c3fbacked No | 68c | 26.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 70c | 26.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 68c | 25.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 80c | 24.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 66c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab0…997cbacked No | 71c | 23.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb52…ef8abacked No | 64c | 22.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 65c | 20.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…b4bbbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8baa…a573backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 66cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 63c | 19.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 66c | 17.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 118 | 67.8%80 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed No | 66c | 15.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f74…fa8bbacked No | 69c | 14.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on August 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.