NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Heat
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcdc0481a540fa058f554e92d0757ccddc7e3e4534da3dd44560ae4865eab989b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Grizzliesof Grizzlies, Heat
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,716
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,183
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,716 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3697…f189backed Heat | 16c | 2,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 652 | 18.4%120 W · 532 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Heat | 53c | 1,693$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.38 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Grizzlies | 41c | 1,096$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.84 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Grizzlies | 41c | 1,050$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.5 | 1,782 | 28%499 W · 1,283 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019d…2b01backed Grizzlies | 40c | 898.96$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.78 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Heat | 59c | 750$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.5 | 623 | 51.4%320 W · 303 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Heat | 59c | 737$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.34 | 361 | 48.5%175 W · 186 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Grizzlies | 76c | 579.44$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Heat | 51c | 560.33$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.38 | 1,190 | 32%381 W · 809 L | -58.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Heat | 63c | 544.79$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.22 | 736 | 47.3%348 W · 388 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…0ccbbacked Grizzlies | 38c | 519$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.1 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Heat | 62c | 500$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 1,090 | 35.8%390 W · 700 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Heat | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 345 | 24.3%84 W · 261 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Grizzlies | 73c | 495$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc34…8e75backed Heat | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Heat | 45c | 380$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.8 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Grizzlies | 40c | 376$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.6 | 278 | 40.6%113 W · 165 L | -22.5wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84b8…1193backed Grizzlies | 55c | 360$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 349 | 42.7%149 W · 200 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x185c…dee1backed Grizzlies | 43c | 348.84$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.84 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x279b…04f5backed Grizzlies | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Heat | 60c | 275.75$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.61 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x898b…8d76backed Heat | 7c | 254.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 179 | 43.6%78 W · 101 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ee…700bbacked Grizzlies | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Grizzlies | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…2cf3backed Heat | 58c | 239.67$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 849 | 57.6%489 W · 360 L | -52.1wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Grizzlies | 36c | 219$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.93 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Heat | 63c | 214.15$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.15 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Heat | 56c | 201.52$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.16 | 1,316 | 50.5%664 W · 652 L | +42.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed Grizzlies | 54c | 200$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.8 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab1…ed8bbacked Heat | 30c | 189$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 122 | 22.1%27 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed Heat | 64c | 150$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 958 | 48.7%467 W · 491 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x768c…7243backed Grizzlies | 36c | 130.47$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…bdafbacked Heat | 62c | 115.1$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.36 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Heat | 59c | 111.79$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.84 | 1,409 | 40.2%567 W · 842 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…f780backed Grizzlies | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 35cpaid | +47%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc2dd…61dcbacked Heat | 57c | 98.12$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.93 | 124 | 58.9%73 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Grizzlies | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Grizzlies | 42c | 94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.84 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Heat | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Grizzlies | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 489 | 48.5%237 W · 252 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd08…edd5backed Grizzlies | 38c | 81.72$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaee…7beabacked Heat | 64c | 76.86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.31per pick | 59cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc368…0622backed Heat | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 151 | 40.4%61 W · 90 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3804…6136backed Heat | 61c | 57.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 267 | 49.8%133 W · 134 L | +17.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17ae…ccf1backed Heat | 60c | 42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Heat | 62c | 33.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e5…1dd0backed Heat | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 416 | 54.8%228 W · 188 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2f…2d24backed Heat | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Grizzlies | 38c | 31.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb6…a2fcbacked Grizzlies | 71c | 25.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 164 | 29.9%49 W · 115 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…cc97backed Heat | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…d904backed Grizzlies | 60c | 23.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe49e…bd1cbacked Heat | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.