Fifa International · resolved market
Will Canada vs. Ecuador end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce52a891e95df6d5dc014fae271b865cfa9900bb52130d1b42ff4b35aef441b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,402
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,139
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,402 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 54c | 3,667$1,973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,972.84 | 359 | 42.9%154 W · 205 L | -16.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 24c | 1,752$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.31 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 10c | 1,541$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.52 | 237 | 38.8%92 W · 145 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Yes | 68c | 1,471$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.82 | 247 | 32.4%80 W · 167 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Yes | 70c | 1,431$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.01 | 142 | 46.5%66 W · 76 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…3e3dbacked No | 12c | 1,046$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.12 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 33c | 1,011$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.21 | 300 | 31%93 W · 207 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730 | 224 | 21%47 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 22c | 805.14$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.63 | 760 | 48.7%370 W · 390 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 51c | 780.59$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.66 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 68c | 146.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 226 | 50.9%115 W · 111 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 54c | 119.14$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.94 | 550 | 45.1%248 W · 302 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 673 | 54.7%368 W · 305 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked No | 62c | 90$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed No | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 317 | 47.6%151 W · 166 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 30c | 66.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 71c | 65.41$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.49 | 465 | 36.1%168 W · 297 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x222a…913dbacked Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Yes | 32c | 46.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b7…cdb7backed Yes | 34c | 44.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +98.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed No | 65c | 38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 129 | 45%58 W · 71 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…d549backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…487dbacked No | 41c | 28.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 67c | 21.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 1,001 | 53.9%540 W · 461 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5240…dde0backed No | 69c | 20.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc212…b061backed No | 68c | 15.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Yes | 73c | 14.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Canada vs. Ecuador end in a draw?this page
- Will Canada win on 2025-11-13?No won
- Will Ecuador win on 2025-11-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.