TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on August 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,637
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,222

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,637 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes53c1,187$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.9810342.7%44 W · 59 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+121.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No25c724.04$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.814,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed No27c520.44$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.5389544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x24ed…8a18backed Yes73c506.84$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.7818732.1%60 W · 127 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No46c395.68$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.634,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x180e…29dfbacked Yes40c340.1$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.0650860.4%307 W · 201 L+18.3wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb84c…e169backed No48c297.16$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.6441752%217 W · 200 L-11.4wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No56c294$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.0510,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No22c290.31$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.171,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed No40c277.45$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.9446626%121 W · 345 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes72c275.94$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.4519559.5%116 W · 79 L0.0wins0.00per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes66c245.81$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.25,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes45c228.8$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.8420452%106 W · 98 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No13c222.26$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.262,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No36c210.79$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.4912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No48c202.71$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.675,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No46c200$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9256543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No14c184.33$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6977151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No25c177.29$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.392,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No38c162.62$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.014,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c28…66b0backed Yes46c160$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.41764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+25.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x012f…400dbacked No50c160$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.834831%108 W · 240 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa12d…4c1bbacked No55c154.58$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.7320241.1%83 W · 119 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes55c152.59$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.671,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No8c140.35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.162,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No33c130.22$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.569,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed Yes60c123.9$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.481,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked Yes41c116.05$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.4782742.8%354 W · 473 L+2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes66c113.53$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.1361249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No22c108.67$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.492,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5695…60e9backed Yes47c104.17$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.2119252.1%100 W · 92 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes41c102.44$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.4429948.2%144 W · 155 L+28.2wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+24.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes43c102.21$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.0117251.7%89 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed No46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4655954.7%306 W · 253 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4790555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4476…c5fcbacked No46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4642547.5%202 W · 223 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No53c95.18$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6e2…06f4backed No50c95$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0518449.5%91 W · 93 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No60c90.11$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.954,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No21c90$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.96,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes49c89.56$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.6846743.7%204 W · 263 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed No60c88.51$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.6766944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes69c86.18$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.613,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No24c74.65$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.712,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No30c70$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2198236.7%360 W · 622 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked No22c65.48$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.262,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes40c60$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3614957.7%86 W · 63 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed No23c58.15$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3345162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No24c56.82$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.661,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No33c51.76$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.081,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes41c51.72$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.7428344.5%126 W · 157 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No26c50.2$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.971,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No59c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.51,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a9f…d7c1backed Yes79c49.06$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.214452.3%23 W · 21 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xecd9…5565backed No54c49$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.513350.4%67 W · 66 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes45c47.56$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.1628546.3%132 W · 153 L-17.3wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-11.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes77c46$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5812350.4%62 W · 61 L-14.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-19.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1fdd…77a4backed Yes44c40.54$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.821250%6 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked Yes73c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.981855%450 W · 368 L+1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No28c39.95$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.154867.3%369 W · 179 L+26.4wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes78c38.42$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No40c36.92$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.643,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe0cd…d931backed Yes42c36.43$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.119956.3%112 W · 87 L-0.6wins0.00per pick57cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed Yes44c35.57$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.871,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa08b…270cbacked Yes80c35.12$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.122065%13 W · 7 L+0.1wins0.00per pick65cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9b7…f43cbacked No55c35.05$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1230834.4%106 W · 202 L+0.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No45c34.8$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.65,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed Yes73c34$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.181,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb6b…c7f7backed Yes44c33.76$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.7613943.9%61 W · 78 L-12.6wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-25.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x47e6…c039backed Yes45c33.66$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.6618242.3%77 W · 105 L-19.1wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-30.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x39c3…e155backed Yes45c33.47$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4725447.6%121 W · 133 L-18.8wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-14.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes47c32.82$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5462137.7%234 W · 387 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3450…cee8backed Yes67c31.55$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.334257.1%24 W · 18 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-12.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x72bc…a7dabacked Yes80c30.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.26742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-22.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes70c28.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.5318862.8%118 W · 70 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93f7…c133backed Yes77c25.09$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8718555.7%103 W · 82 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb699…4e20backed No59c25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7521352.1%111 W · 102 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed No60c22.27$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.271,01058.1%587 W · 423 L-34.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes67c20.01$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.524,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No60c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bbd…3bedbacked No60c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9237541.6%156 W · 219 L-52.4wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-28%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes70c17.67$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.310166.3%67 W · 34 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2688…88c9backed Yes80c15.67$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.132445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-25.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.