Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 86-87°F on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf3cb064f2a98f3d12ab96e27ca7d45e388baf32e5d988ae6a13745a0f2114b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,282
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,536
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,282 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa059…dbcfbacked Yes | 44c | 2,500$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.33per pick | 56cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 56c | 1,973$1,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,105.11 | 478 | 45.2%216 W · 262 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 38c | 1,923$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,188.75 | 1,472 | 34.8%512 W · 960 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 37c | 669.41$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.65 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 524.99$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.82 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 56c | 415.21$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.89 | 881 | 24.1%212 W · 669 L | -40.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 67c | 400$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 144 | 55.6%80 W · 64 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 68c | 375.7$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.12 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 37c | 317.78$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.04 | 725 | 42.2%306 W · 419 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 41c | 309.44$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.44 | 331 | 54.7%181 W · 150 L | +34.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 273.91$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.91 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 73c | 216.91$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.84 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 66c | 209$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.94 | 525 | 67%352 W · 173 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked Yes | 45c | 208.26$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.96 | 483 | 62.5%302 W · 181 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 11c | 201.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 193$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.38 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 66c | 193$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.42 | 1,254 | 59.8%750 W · 504 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 63c | 158.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.66 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…3166backed Yes | 22c | 150.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 18cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 50c | 146.4$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.68 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 28c | 144.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.07 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 29c | 133$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.17 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed43…9f9cbacked No | 16c | 127.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 120.1$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.66 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 59c | 101.25$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.49 | 1,500 | 24.7%371 W · 1,129 L | -31.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb8…8c23backed Yes | 37c | 100.38$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.32 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.75 | 1,477 | 58.6%865 W · 612 L | +72.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 61c | 98.81$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.27 | 255 | 69%176 W · 79 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed Yes | 46c | 96.69$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 253 | 57.7%146 W · 107 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 70c | 95.33$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.54 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked Yes | 31c | 87$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.15 | 287 | 58.5%168 W · 119 L | +10.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 39c | 81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.41 | 940 | 44.8%421 W · 519 L | +16.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 70$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 4,032 | 35.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L | +42.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 68c | 69.7$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.35 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 20c | 69.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.43 | 157 | 31.2%49 W · 108 L | +9.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 62c | 67.47$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 138 | 61.6%85 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 66c | 67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.22 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 70c | 66.95$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 64c | 61.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 59c | 57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 56.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 52c | 54.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 39c | 53.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.91 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 66c | 53.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 533 | 73.7%393 W · 140 L | +36.8wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 27c | 53.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.11 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 53c | 53.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 576 | 54.3%313 W · 263 L | +16.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda61…2b5fbacked No | 65c | 52.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecff…5645backed Yes | 39c | 50.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 43c | 50.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 697 | 35.3%246 W · 451 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 30c | 47.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 62c | 45.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 24c | 45.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 55c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 68c | 41.22$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 247 | 56.3%139 W · 108 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 456 | 30%137 W · 319 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…7850backed Yes | 43c | 39.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 786 | 27.1%213 W · 573 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 63c | 36.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 892 | 59.8%533 W · 359 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 67c | 36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 338 | 67.8%229 W · 109 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 69c | 35.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 1,268 | 58.4%740 W · 528 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2035…dc1cbacked Yes | 36c | 35.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 2,215 | 74%1,638 W · 577 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…7dafbacked No | 71c | 34.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 85 | 76.5%65 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 35c | 33.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 188 | 29.8%56 W · 132 L | -12.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -25%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 49c | 32.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 57c | 30.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b02…abdfbacked Yes | 45c | 29.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 44c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 42c | 26.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 942 | 2.4%23 W · 919 L | -388.2wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 5-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 197 | 50.8%100 W · 97 L | -15.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 64c | 24.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 75c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 493 | 63.5%313 W · 180 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 66c | 20.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 997 | 57.2%570 W · 427 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed No | 71c | 20.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 4,627 | 58.3%2,696 W · 1,931 L | -114.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 114 | 47.4%54 W · 60 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 86-87°F on August 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 88-89°F on August 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.