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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on August 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$24,991
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$27,125

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,991 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc3d0…031abacked Yes0c11,030$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.351127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes39c2,250$871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$871.071,47234.8%512 W · 960 L-2.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb106…13f4backed No61c700$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27314455.6%80 W · 64 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No59c561.03$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.181,06750.7%541 W · 526 L+29.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3904…539bbacked No32c549.12$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.0148362.5%302 W · 181 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No61c534.54$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.4610,95237.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L+432.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes44c508.04$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.494,70026.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L+64.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes35c458.67$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.5169150.5%349 W · 342 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked No63c306.22$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.231,48857.3%853 W · 635 L+46.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b29…f288backed No57c287.72$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.7211346%52 W · 61 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95d3…6effbacked Yes40c274.14$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.6653548.2%258 W · 277 L+21.6wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No61c244$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.165,25549.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L-163.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No36c207.79$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.811,90155.9%1,062 W · 839 L-33.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No59c201.83$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.772,20162.2%1,370 W · 831 L-0.5wins0.00per pick62cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes38c200$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7619845.5%90 W · 108 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No56c183.77$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.781,25459.8%750 W · 504 L+36.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes39c173.07$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.510,04444.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L+257.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ba7…3d88backed No62c162$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.6152567%352 W · 173 L+1.9wins0.00per pick67cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed No56c159.98$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.3994044.8%421 W · 519 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a3b…957bbacked No51c138.67$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.5437856.3%213 W · 165 L+31.5wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+18.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No61c120$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.888749.5%439 W · 448 L-26.9wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes52c115.93$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6033943.1%146 W · 193 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x986b…2721backed Yes41c115.8$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.9725357.7%146 W · 107 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes38c113.05$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.969,96245.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L-309.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6e2…06f4backed No61c112.5$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.8824248.8%118 W · 124 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xecff…5645backed Yes39c111.68$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.562759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+30.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Yes39c109.83$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8418829.8%56 W · 132 L-12.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-25%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x14ad…69f5backed No61c106.38$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.4929043.8%127 W · 163 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No44c104.35$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.724,44253.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L-17.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391,26858.4%740 W · 528 L-1.4wins0.00per pick58cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdb8…8c23backed Yes42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423935.9%14 W · 25 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8958…656dbacked No41c83.53$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.4413861.6%85 W · 53 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf13…b91abacked Yes40c81.04$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1355942.6%238 W · 321 L+24.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No17c79.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.396,90553.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L+422.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x09c2…8210backed Yes20c78$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5257654.3%313 W · 263 L+16.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No38c77.57$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.832,25458.2%1,311 W · 943 L+84.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0fb4…c6d7backed No42c76.13$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.8452347.6%249 W · 274 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No14c75.62$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.952,17653.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L+36.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x637d…7df1backed No80c75$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153855.3%21 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No60c74.67$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.8788124.1%212 W · 669 L-40.8wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-42.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes44c70$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.84,00947.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L+71.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No62c62.24$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.651,69752.5%891 W · 806 L-42.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes37c61$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.331,85842.7%793 W · 1,065 L+50.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ca4…6aa2backed Yes43c60$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.814240.1%57 W · 85 L-11.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-24%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes39c59.63$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.551,47758.6%865 W · 612 L+72.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No58c58.73$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.756,16649.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L-117.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeec7…2fa1backed No57c57.37$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.676864.7%44 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda61…2b5fbacked No56c53.45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.787844.9%35 W · 43 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes62c51.7$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0312,97520.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L-2,698.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-65.3%equal weight27-0.21 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes39c50.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9469735.3%246 W · 451 L-2.4wins0.00per pick36cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x379a…4b1abacked Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2058247.8%278 W · 304 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes45c47.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5267838.6%262 W · 416 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe828…ae41backed Yes41c47.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8816832.1%54 W · 114 L-9.5wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No60c47.43$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.155,00353.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L+31.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa397…7817backed Yes43c46.49$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020255.4%112 W · 90 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No36c44.36$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.612,22659.1%1,316 W · 910 L+110.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf73b…10bfbacked No60c40.84$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2244644.6%199 W · 247 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65f7…86ddbacked No57c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.228758.5%168 W · 119 L+10.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed Yes38c39.47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,46735.7%880 W · 1,587 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee25…63ccbacked Yes39c38.89$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0224756.3%139 W · 108 L-0.2wins0.00per pick56cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No47c38.86$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.7398651.1%504 W · 482 L-49.2wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No47c38.4$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.212,25456.9%1,283 W · 971 L+69.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes39c37.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6346736.8%172 W · 295 L+1.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No43c36.92$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212,20156.8%1,250 W · 951 L+69.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes72c35$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.216252.5%85 W · 77 L-14.5wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-16.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x868b…f600backed Yes43c35$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153652.8%19 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xca4f…9f11backed No65c34.45$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.971338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-32.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x53fb…e92abacked Yes59c32.43$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2117058.8%100 W · 70 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No55c32$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.45,19368.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L+70.8wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.82,69147.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L+48.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9b7…f43cbacked No58c29.05$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2460032%192 W · 408 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61dd…cbd8backed No57c28.67$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.336261.3%38 W · 24 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No61c26.34$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.264,73947.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L-186.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2298…9f33backed Yes45c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2537467.4%252 W · 122 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x969a…7850backed Yes71c24.62$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.371580%12 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+23.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No51c24.13$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.8981457.5%468 W · 346 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b8…e849backed No59c24.01$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.835156.9%29 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes58c23.52$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.539422.4%23 W · 919 L-388.2wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.4%equal weight5-0.40 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No47c21.78$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.542,29559.3%1,360 W · 935 L+118.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa0dc…64d0backed Yes76c21.05$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161181.8%9 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick74cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed No62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.61,15857.1%661 W · 497 L-45.6wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b27…ff88backed Yes61c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.213654.4%74 W · 62 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No59c19$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.83,83561.1%2,345 W · 1,490 L-35.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5191…0c35backed Yes73c17.6$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.813652.8%19 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+17.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd443…5f71backed No64c17.5$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.348856.8%50 W · 38 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7274…c205backed Yes79c12.65$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0421860.1%131 W · 87 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick62cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.