Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 98-99°F on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf44558f2dae5eaf19add72619e47c253b5d4a1a3eeee41fbd6c7d660487d796
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,023
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,414
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,023 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 55c | 4,042$2,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,823.4 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 45c | 3,659$1,646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,646.47 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 44c | 1,029$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.03 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 46c | 912.76$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.71 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 48c | 869.65$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.66 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 45c | 723.97$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.65 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 58c | 345.13$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.13 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 55c | 319.79$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.76 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1516…9f4cbacked Yes | 58c | 240$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 53c | 200.09$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.05 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 56c | 200$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 178.92$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.83 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 58c | 172.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.55 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 44c | 169.84$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.73 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 44c | 150.05$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.46 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 43c | 142.89$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.73 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 57c | 131.35$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.18 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 57c | 125.39$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.83 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 44c | 112$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 42c | 105$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 43c | 101.42$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.98 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 55c | 88.77$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.18 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 73c | 85.41$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 53c | 75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 51c | 69.51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.73 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 42c | 69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 49c | 66.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 69c | 62.06$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 74c | 60.13$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 42c | 54.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 36c | 53.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f9…2ce9backed No | 47c | 39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 75c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 57c | 35.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 45c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 45c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 54c | 27.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0a…ce9fbacked Yes | 56c | 26.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 46c | 26.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked Yes | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 53c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 45c | 23.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed Yes | 51c | 22.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 45c | 22.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e1…421fbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed No | 54c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 56c | 19.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51df…8605backed Yes | 58c | 17.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 98-99°F on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 100-101°F on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.