Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf471c91b75cb951727c2043291161884579456722069b6a9367ebdc250f4f65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,468
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,889
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,468 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 38c | 1,438$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.64 | 609 | 36.8%224 W · 385 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 527.53$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.2 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 437.72$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.99 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 327.77$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.37 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 30c | 323.38$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 2,240 | 49.3%1,104 W · 1,136 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 18c | 297.84$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.05 | 425 | 36.7%156 W · 269 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 68c | 223.1$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.69 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 64c | 205$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.49 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 62c | 199.12$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.77 | 3,126 | 61.8%1,931 W · 1,195 L | -30.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 62c | 197.76$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.91 | 596 | 25%149 W · 447 L | -19.5wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 75c | 171.28$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.96 | 892 | 59.8%533 W · 359 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 152.01$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.07 | 4,313 | 53.6%2,311 W · 2,002 L | +158.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x843e…e477backed No | 47c | 143.86$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.25 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 63c | 117.3$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 107.77$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.09 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 881 | 50.5%445 W · 436 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 25c | 96.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 265 | 56.2%149 W · 116 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 20c | 92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 24c | 80.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 79.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 78c | 71.13$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 51c | 62.36$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.67 | 1,805 | 50.4%910 W · 895 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 767 | 27%207 W · 560 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 63c | 59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 66c | 56.47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 50c | 55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 2,043 | 61.7%1,261 W · 782 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked Yes | 41c | 51.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 4,148 | 56.7%2,351 W · 1,797 L | +51.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 49.28$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 59c | 44.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 1,254 | 59.8%750 W · 504 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92d4…4cf3backed No | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 36c | 39.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 31c | 39.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 50c | 30.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 80c | 29.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 52c | 26.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 61c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 57c | 23.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 237 | 50.2%119 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 706 | 75.5%533 W · 173 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 23.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 941 | 62.3%586 W · 355 L | -24.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x599f…3317backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 128 | 78.1%100 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d66…a545backed No | 67c | 18.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 114 | 69.3%79 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 62c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 71c | 15.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 901 | 55.7%502 W · 399 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 15.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on August 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.