MLB · resolved market
Rays vs. Yankees
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf4b078d184e8d251942c904908bb9052c6bf913c6ee3a55af57983467900cb2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raysof Rays, Yankees
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $195,942
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $190,415
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $195,942 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe9c4…ab5fbacked Yankees | 73c | 105,140$77,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77,000 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Rays | 28c | 59,174$16,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,555.95 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Rays | 29c | 20,530$5,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,611.38 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Yankees | 66c | 13,352$8,777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,776.5 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Rays | 33c | 11,980$3,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,981.04 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf980…6528backed Rays | 34c | 11,569$3,934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,635.82 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1957…66a2backed Yankees | 69c | 7,472$5,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,136.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Rays | 25c | 5,580$1,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,174.98 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Rays | 26c | 4,786$1,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,561.46 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Rays | 35c | 4,360$1,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,838.43 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed Rays | 25c | 4,272$1,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,199.82 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Yankees | 49c | 4,129$2,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,023.41 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Rays | 27c | 3,390$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,469.96 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Rays | 53c | 2,248$1,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,051.88 | 959 | 30%288 W · 671 L | -24.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Rays | 34c | 2,165$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,435 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Rays | 33c | 2,076$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,383.22 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…af0abacked Rays | 37c | 1,932$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,210.04 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Rays | 34c | 1,906$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,252.3 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1752…7993backed Rays | 60c | 1,786$1,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.28 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Rays | 32c | 1,756$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,198.56 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Yankees | 63c | 1,321$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.91 | 511 | 51.7%264 W · 247 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…79e0backed Yankees | 63c | 1,280$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Yankees | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Rays | 33c | 786.97$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.41 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Rays | 52c | 570.58$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.57 | 375 | 52.5%197 W · 178 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…dcd3backed Rays | 44c | 488.01$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.32 | 172 | 39.5%68 W · 104 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…15ddbacked Rays | 34c | 445.2$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.8 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yankees | 30c | 400$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Yankees | 72c | 400$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…73e6backed Rays | 31c | 378.85$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.62 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Rays | 34c | 357$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.62 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…9c8ebacked Rays | 31c | 338.71$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.71 | 394 | 36%142 W · 252 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…d82cbacked Rays | 39c | 321.16$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.91 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Yankees | 30c | 314.9$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.45 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Rays | 35c | 300$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Rays | 35c | 297.48$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.36 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yankees | 62c | 280.04$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.6 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304f…3d89backed Yankees | 43c | 233.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Yankees | 76c | 206$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.42 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…e209backed Yankees | 67c | 200$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -5.8wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yankees | 65c | 154.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yankees | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c5e…3668backed Yankees | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Yankees | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 254 | 52.8%134 W · 120 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd656…d127backed Yankees | 18c | 125$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.7wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…8509backed Rays | 24c | 106$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.56 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked Rays | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Rays | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a1…d6e6backed Rays | 31c | 97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.93 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Rays | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Rays | 31c | 80$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Yankees | 66c | 61.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d4…ae49backed Yankees | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yankees | 65c | 55.54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Yankees | 66c | 42.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 160 | 55.6%89 W · 71 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Rays | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed Yankees | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 161 | 51.6%83 W · 78 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…2a64backed Yankees | 33c | 36.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Yankees | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x459e…9931backed Yankees | 65c | 15.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Yankees | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yankees | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.