Mls · resolved market
Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-07-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf5fe44d84cdff51b21e3cbbeb2a042aeb8345ecb0bcf171e1fe37be8a328823
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,784
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,150
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,784 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fba…d08abacked Yes | 24c | 10,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,399.97 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 76c | 6,212$4,721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,490.98 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b5…4582backed Yes | 23c | 5,200$1,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,195.99 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 76c | 2,722$2,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.73 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed Yes | 24c | 2,387$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.93 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 10c | 2,374$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 78c | 2,048$1,594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.61 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Yes | 23c | 1,739$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd73…53c5backed Yes | 6c | 1,714$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce7…3150backed Yes | 25c | 1,332$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 23c | 1,266$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.2 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Yes | 18c | 1,257$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.53 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b8…8921backed Yes | 30c | 990.81$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -4.8wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -57%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 19c | 873.97$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.54 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a1…ceb5backed No | 78c | 837.18$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…d814backed No | 76c | 792.22$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.13 | 92 | 68.5%63 W · 29 L | +11.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…1787backed Yes | 25c | 545.29$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.41 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 23c | 452.12$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.75 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2759…2b38backed Yes | 24c | 424.2$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.81 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed No | 76c | 382$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.68 | 238 | 58%138 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 21c | 327.77$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.83 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed No | 71c | 283.68$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.27 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked No | 78c | 274.08$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.35 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed No | 77c | 264$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.72 | 106 | 28.3%30 W · 76 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 69c | 260.74$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.83 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 77c | 256.69$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.39 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Yes | 21c | 201$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.21 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -6.5wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…587ebacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Yes | 27c | 182.68$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.42 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Yes | 28c | 170$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.01 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac9e…cca3backed No | 71c | 157.75$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed No | 76c | 144$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 143 | 49%70 W · 73 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b8…233abacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Yes | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 204 | 49%100 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…781ebacked No | 76c | 92.91$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36cf…d3aebacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Yes | 29c | 69.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -6.2wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed No | 78c | 68.21$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed No | 76c | 65.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf15…a1febacked No | 76c | 63.29$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb5…3444backed Yes | 22c | 62.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed No | 75c | 57.01$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 132 | 59.1%78 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed No | 75c | 52.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…02ccbacked Yes | 24c | 49.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 74c | 45.44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed No | 78c | 44.58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 123 | 56.9%70 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc4…3b73backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…208ebacked No | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 75c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed No | 76c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed No | 76c | 32.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…553fbacked No | 78c | 32.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70bb…10d3backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76f5…8ad6backed No | 77c | 29.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4b…0a04backed No | 77c | 24.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5a…724cbacked No | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed No | 76c | 20.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 67c | 18.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f15…a670backed No | 76c | 16.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2a…4042backed No | 71c | 14.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd55…133cbacked No | 71c | 14.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-07-25?this page
- Will Philadelphia Union vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-07-25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.