Mls · resolved market
Will Philadelphia Union vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c198fc7e1ae1f0cfc35c3af184de538a6470470a688bded81ab88e1eaf991f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,911
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,501
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,911 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 15c | 11,552$1,679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,679.23 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2759…2b38backed Yes | 24c | 1,802$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.58 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 76c | 1,796$1,363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.26 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 13c | 1,490$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 127 | 51.2%65 W · 62 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 79c | 1,233$968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.42 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 78c | 864.77$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.26 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Yes | 12c | 800$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Yes | 21c | 794.11$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.76 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Yes | 5c | 735$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 206 | 48.5%100 W · 106 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 77c | 671.7$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.49 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 21c | 453.36$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.66 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Yes | 22c | 257$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.54 | 106 | 28.3%30 W · 76 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Yes | 5c | 256$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 132 | 28.8%38 W · 94 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Yes | 22c | 212.38$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.72 | 264 | 50%132 W · 132 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed Yes | 12c | 203.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | -11.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdde…0b07backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 6c | 182$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Yes | 14c | 180$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd55…c9bfbacked Yes | 24c | 165$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -5.0wins | -0.30per pick | 36cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 19c | 145$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…c701backed Yes | 26c | 135.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9714…5152backed No | 78c | 125.1$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed No | 76c | 120$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 143 | 49%70 W · 73 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 76c | 100.33$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b20…2f94backed Yes | 24c | 100.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 31cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce5…17f9backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 204 | 49%100 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 21c | 75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked No | 77c | 73.53$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed No | 76c | 65.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed No | 77c | 48.58$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 132 | 59.1%78 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed No | 77c | 40.92$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b4…f911backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f5…ea74backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df7…7f76backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed No | 77c | 32.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed No | 76c | 25.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed No | 76c | 25.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 80c | 24.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 108 | 40.7%44 W · 64 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 79c | 21.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed No | 76c | 19.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 169 | 48.5%82 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 73c | 18.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 75c | 15.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc66a…ed6abacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed No | 76c | 14.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 123 | 56.9%70 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Philadelphia Union vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-07-25?Yes won
- Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-07-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.