UFC · resolved market
Paige VanZant vs. Mikael-Michelle Brown
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd033bbfad3dc93bbe3ff0424b38d85ed7a7481fce2c1de1575faebdc999a6f16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- VanZantof VanZant, Brown
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,427
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,603
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,427 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Brown | 29c | 461.5$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.23 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa112…d215backed VanZant | 68c | 258$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.56 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Brown | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed VanZant | 69c | 182.71$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.75 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Brown | 33c | 106.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed VanZant | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed VanZant | 71c | 83$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa568…12f6backed VanZant | 70c | 75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d44…b15ebacked VanZant | 67c | 74.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Brown | 31c | 66.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 246 | 49.6%122 W · 124 L | +14.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Brown | 32c | 58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed VanZant | 70c | 55.16$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Brown | 33c | 54.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed VanZant | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Paige VanZant vs. Mikael-Michelle Brownthis page
- Anthony Defrank vs. Reiley MontoyaMontoya won
- Dorian Perez vs. Pono PauPerez won
- Isaih Quinones vs. Branden BordeauxBordeaux won
- Robert Trujillo vs. Dakota McGregorTrujillo won
- Wes Mena vs. Aaron TurnerMena won
- Wesley Drain vs. Ke’ali’i KanekoaKanekoa won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.