Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0b6e102134576ff51849c24cd5729a101259bc281238c54c7df91732318f255
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,973
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,756
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,973 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 976.94$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.01 | 8,337 | 49.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L | +271.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 812.9$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.94 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 634.23$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.5 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 27c | 299.03$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.83 | 763 | 22.9%175 W · 588 L | -34.2wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 77c | 227.02$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.82 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 30c | 215.31$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.55 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 69c | 178.86$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.14 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 70c | 147.9$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.37 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00b2…3ef1backed No | 75c | 132.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 83 | 74.7%62 W · 21 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 30c | 132.13$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 59c | 112.65$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.38 | 2,548 | 45.4%1,157 W · 1,391 L | +23.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 795 | 36.6%291 W · 504 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 78c | 100.19$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 220 | 70.9%156 W · 64 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02e2…701abacked Yes | 42c | 99.66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.87 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 57c | 84.18$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 82.54$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 36c | 81.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 29c | 79.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c8…4209backed Yes | 28c | 68.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -56%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 67.75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 27c | 64.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 70c | 59.71$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 59.1$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 57$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 44c | 51.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 282 | 51.1%144 W · 138 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 46c | 49.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 27c | 49.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 70c | 47.04$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 71c | 47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59a…1dbfbacked No | 73c | 41.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…834bbacked Yes | 37c | 40.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 220 | 45.9%101 W · 119 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…20a1backed No | 71c | 39.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 79c | 39.19$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 917 | 73.2%671 W · 246 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 38.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 71c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 782 | 55.4%433 W · 349 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 29.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 1,597 | 78.6%1,255 W · 342 L | +41.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 74c | 27.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 25.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 72c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 72c | 21.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 1,268 | 58.4%740 W · 528 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 941 | 62.3%586 W · 355 L | -24.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 79c | 17.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 333 | 66.4%221 W · 112 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 79c | 17.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 163 | 65.6%107 W · 56 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 71c | 15.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on July 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 42°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 43°C or higher on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.