TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on July 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,629
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,652

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,629 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc9de…81d9backed Yes31c874.39$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.3142036.4%153 W · 267 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes40c832.71$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.881,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No69c498.31$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.681,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No61c440.38$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.9110,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes28c407.35$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.572042.2%304 W · 416 L+26.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8e3…07bcbacked No62c383.72$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.679976.8%76 W · 23 L+8.3wins+0.08per pick68cpaid+12.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No64c337.53$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.618,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No67c220.03$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.164,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6780…41ccbacked Yes40c216.06$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.4227051.1%138 W · 132 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-6.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf71a…fa40backed Yes40c208.82$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.4419042.6%81 W · 109 L-11.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes39c202.09$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.7254143.1%233 W · 308 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+42.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes35c181$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.3613834.8%48 W · 90 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No50c178.87$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.052,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes34c150$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$991,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes28c143.3$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.694,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3175…9bb2backed Yes38c140.61$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.4216642.8%71 W · 95 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes36c135.87$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.632,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00b2…3ef1backed Yes79c131.37$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.147176.1%54 W · 17 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick69cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No31c130.37$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.154,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No17c128.73$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.676,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5787…1f86backed Yes41c121.95$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.9523560%141 W · 94 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes33c120$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.423731.6%75 W · 162 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes44c115.51$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.382,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No60c113.98$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.7771823.4%168 W · 550 L-26.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb38…467cbacked Yes41c107$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.134656.5%26 W · 20 L-0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7861…3084backed Yes73c99.39$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6415270.4%107 W · 45 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No52c98.23$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.023,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No62c94.21$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.2212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No61c94.09$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xaebb…9922backed Yes66c84.41$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.412250%11 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5af3…1534backed Yes65c77.96$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.246854.4%37 W · 31 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No62c75.32$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.851,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes31c74.45$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.498,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb335…aac1backed Yes41c73.17$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.179538.9%37 W · 58 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed No72c64$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0854853.1%291 W · 257 L-28.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ebb…405abacked No65c61.72$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2479040.9%323 W · 467 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes38c60.33$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.466,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x304b…a619backed No62c60$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.227552%143 W · 132 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd403…8764backed Yes39c60$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+158.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No66c57.24$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.974,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf18c…18c1backed No72c56$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3243959.5%261 W · 178 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No63c55.45$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.834,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes28c55.4$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.892,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fe7…d0a7backed No72c55.4$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e3b…05aabacked Yes34c53.83$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.334734%16 W · 31 L+4.4wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9a86…9f83backed Yes78c51.28$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.288476.2%64 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed Yes34c50.17$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.112,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99ef…ab48backed Yes41c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.56653%35 W · 31 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcd2…87c9backed Yes36c49.99$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.9911344.2%50 W · 63 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa016…67c2backed Yes30c49.48$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.4851156.6%289 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29d4…5d18backed Yes36c48.06$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.635332.1%17 W · 36 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked Yes40c46$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.654253%287 W · 255 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No68c45.74$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.188973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaee7…8834backed Yes33c45.1$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.112547.2%59 W · 66 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x531d…f04fbacked Yes44c45.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.043174.2%23 W · 8 L+4.1wins+0.13per pick61cpaid+23.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No68c44.11$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.999,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0066…20a1backed No70c40$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288865.9%58 W · 30 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No66c40$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.42,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed Yes38c38.57$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.911,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ef4…6ecabacked No62c38$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8e1…716dbacked Yes41c37$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.833253.1%17 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed No60c36.56$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.11,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No59c35$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.53,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0428…7d12backed Yes33c31.24$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.9330136.9%111 W · 190 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No69c30.89$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3165353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.22,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02e2…701abacked No49c29.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.64027.5%11 W · 29 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No67c29.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.033,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No61c29$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.694,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc50c…8d41backed No58c27.78$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0842366.4%281 W · 142 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33e8…dc93backed No63c27.07$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0623941.4%99 W · 140 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e5e…35c9backed No66c24.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4917350.9%88 W · 85 L-13.2wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-14.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x51b8…2202backed Yes44c23.87$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.382846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ee3…cd22backed No62c23$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed Yes44c22.66$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6114945.6%68 W · 81 L-9.0wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2706…c6bebacked No69c21.64$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8831866%210 W · 108 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c18…32c3backed No69c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.81,04362.9%656 W · 387 L-11.9wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed No61c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2589557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce38…899fbacked Yes58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.48580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+26.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a20…89d2backed No68c18$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2431766.9%212 W · 105 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x948f…0b98backed Yes59c17.79$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.2911983.2%99 W · 20 L+21.5wins+0.18per pick65cpaid+27.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x1461…b97ebacked No64c17.07$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8628035.4%99 W · 181 L-69.3wins-0.25per pick60cpaid-45.3%equal weight25-0.23 edge/pick
0x7e16…7f14backed No68c15$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.222064.5%142 W · 78 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.