South American Leagues · resolved market
Cruzeiro EC vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0c7380aafd83fba7bcf06d856280bd0de7cf055fe0deef1d43633e10a2bc8ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,917
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,014
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,917 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38f0…2768backed Under | 54c | 32,615$17,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,044.83 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 45c | 5,515$2,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,482.94 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 46c | 5,051$2,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,343.15 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed Over | 46c | 4,000$1,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,840 | 248 | 55.2%137 W · 111 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32fe…ae64backed Over | 49c | 3,968$1,931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,930.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x374a…03edbacked Over | 46c | 3,000$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 58c | 2,182$1,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$915.05 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed Over | 46c | 1,750$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805 | 165 | 58.2%96 W · 69 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 46c | 1,650$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.52 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed Over | 46c | 1,500$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 51c | 1,008$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.6 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed Over | 47c | 968.2$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.05 | 230 | 57.4%132 W · 98 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 47c | 711.61$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.46 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed Over | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 183 | 58.5%107 W · 76 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Over | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 288 | 51.7%149 W · 139 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed Over | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 230 | 56.5%130 W · 100 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Over | 47c | 457.32$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.94 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Over | 46c | 450$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 249 | 56.6%141 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 51c | 440.65$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.73 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed Over | 46c | 400$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 213 | 58.7%125 W · 88 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed Over | 46c | 400$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 165 | 59.4%98 W · 67 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Over | 46c | 400$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 158 | 57.6%91 W · 67 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ef…9fadbacked Over | 53c | 393.01$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.3 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Over | 46c | 324.41$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.97 | 72 | 69.4%50 W · 22 L | +12.3wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 49c | 290.76$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.2 | 217 | 52.1%113 W · 104 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 46c | 279.68$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.65 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 45c | 275.73$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.45 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 29c | 261.92$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.63 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Over | 46c | 250$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 216 | 57.9%125 W · 91 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked Over | 46c | 250$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 203 | 60.6%123 W · 80 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 67c | 245.05$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.03 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54a6…7401backed Over | 46c | 241.23$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.37 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 53c | 210.22$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.8 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Under | 52c | 190.93$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.65 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked Over | 37c | 155.91$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.76 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed Over | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 220 | 58.6%129 W · 91 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed Over | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 155 | 60%93 W · 62 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 46c | 142.1$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.9 | 507 | 46.7%237 W · 270 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked Under | 53c | 138.03$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.29 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 22c | 130.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 46c | 119$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.24 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b08…aaf4backed Over | 48c | 108.28$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.98 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 242 | 57%138 W · 104 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 189 | 59.3%112 W · 77 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 45c | 96.7$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5887…994ebacked Over | 64c | 88.82$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 52c | 85.55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.06 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 66c | 84.79$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b35…7e1dbacked Over | 46c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Over | 46c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 179 | 60.3%108 W · 71 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 46c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 135 | 57%77 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c65…6b11backed Under | 67c | 73.43$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…a518backed Over | 47c | 70.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Over | 46c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1427…859fbacked Over | 35c | 68.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Over | 43c | 67.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 36c | 63.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 411 | 45.5%187 W · 224 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over | 46c | 55.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 261 | 60.9%159 W · 102 L | +20.4wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…aadebacked Over | 46c | 55.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Over | 47c | 51.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 172 | 61%105 W · 67 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…b01cbacked Over | 48c | 50.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…7eb2backed Over | 48c | 50.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 45c | 48.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 449 | 59%265 W · 184 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 50c | 48.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1de9…9499backed Under | 66c | 47.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a1…3a92backed Over | 44c | 43.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8293…aaeebacked Over | 44c | 39.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 46cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…9070backed Over | 46c | 38.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cf…0425backed Over | 52c | 37.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffe…9150backed Over | 46c | 37.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Over | 46c | 30.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 99 | 53.5%53 W · 46 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 71c | 27.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 193 | 56%108 W · 85 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Over | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 194 | 60.3%117 W · 77 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Over | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 127 | 61.4%78 W · 49 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Over | 46c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…0741backed Under | 53c | 20.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 2.5this page
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Grêmio FBPA: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 1.5Over won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 3.5Under won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Cruzeiro EC (-1.5)Cruzeiro EC won
- Spread: Cruzeiro EC (-2.5)Grêmio FBPA won
- Spread: Grêmio FBPA (-1.5)Cruzeiro EC won
- Spread: Grêmio FBPA (-2.5)Cruzeiro EC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.