Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0eb5b69e90edc320d636b60aa17899a27e719036d5a60c8e6efa3bee2738614
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,766
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,957
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,766 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 10c | 2,397$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.85 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed Yes | 27c | 1,251$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.88 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked Yes | 4c | 979.13$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.23 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7e…3416backed No | 66c | 927.89$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.36 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 8c | 922.94$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.16 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 43c | 771.67$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.08 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 17c | 724.74$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.91 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 2c | 720.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…52e9backed Yes | 17c | 611.44$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.07 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 11c | 595.11$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.3 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 77c | 490.59$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.3 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 12c | 489.31$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.88 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 6c | 428.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 422.61$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d3…e2bcbacked Yes | 21c | 374.96$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.97 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5b…67a9backed Yes | 63c | 356.01$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.6 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 39c | 345.74$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.76 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c51…7c37backed Yes | 29c | 322.41$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.1 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x848c…5a45backed Yes | 6c | 317.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 6c | 295.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 10c | 293.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 19c | 288.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 68c | 266.22$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…1291backed Yes | 5c | 254.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 10c | 250.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc967…91d5backed Yes | 14c | 242.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe08a…fafebacked Yes | 65c | 208.81$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked Yes | 6c | 204$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +190.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0be4…2ed6backed Yes | 19c | 185.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 11c | 171.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…3f6dbacked Yes | 6c | 163.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 79 | 12.7%10 W · 69 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed Yes | 33c | 162.35$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.82 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked Yes | 14c | 158.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…26babacked Yes | 46c | 147.83$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.33 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb97d…d445backed Yes | 16c | 140.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed No | 55c | 138.23$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.74 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb62…d14fbacked Yes | 40c | 134$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 12c | 131.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 15c | 124.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 16c | 121.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 70c | 118.34$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.57 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…1b7cbacked Yes | 70c | 112.56$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.44 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 13c | 103.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 15c | 96.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…be31backed Yes | 16c | 95.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed No | 70c | 78.46$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 60c | 75.55$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 58c | 74.03$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…d496backed No | 26c | 70.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.24 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5201…34c3backed Yes | 65c | 70$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 69c | 69.88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…4fc6backed Yes | 48c | 63.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 23c | 56.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 20c | 55.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d2…ef4dbacked Yes | 23c | 49.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 49.1$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed No | 30c | 47.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.37 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3e…b127backed Yes | 78c | 45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84dd…9757backed No | 72c | 41.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 67cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…0ef1backed Yes | 70c | 39.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 30c | 37.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 56c | 35.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94c8…0231backed No | 69c | 35.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3736…d161backed No | 79c | 31.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 80c | 30.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a94…0a7bbacked Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f0…8994backed Yes | 71c | 28.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 80c | 24.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes | 48c | 22.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xeb21…305dbacked No | 80c | 19.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 66c | 17.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked Yes | 70c | 15.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked Yes | 76c | 14.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 71c | 14.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed No | 80c | 13.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.72 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.