TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$43,530
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$39,199

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,530 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6a22…1ccfbacked Yes10c4,470$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.161353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes4c1,450$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.552,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed Yes9c1,094$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.7157614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes9c751.28$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.225,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes11c621.81$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.442130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd7e4…352dbacked Yes4c608.06$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.03429.5%4 W · 38 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-53.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd9a…18f9backed Yes3c563.69$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.27932.9%26 W · 53 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x791f…c354backed Yes12c454$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.49944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick33cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b39…22f7backed Yes3c418.5$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.556319%12 W · 51 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-56.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes48c380.46$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.8216437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cf7…36d6backed Yes14c379.86$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.272045%9 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No51c362.65$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.72,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes27c353.48$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.1595933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No52c249.03$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.742,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes48c237.44$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.7517135.1%60 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No50c235.83$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.81,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83a3…4d2bbacked Yes41c231.34$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.628151.9%42 W · 39 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes5c218.95$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.133,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes46c214.58$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.5733139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No76c212.94$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.544,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0be4…2ed6backed Yes50c208.56$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.85846.6%27 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes15c208.09$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7664021.7%139 W · 501 L-23.6wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-43.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xffe0…919ebacked Yes46c204.9$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.627758.4%45 W · 32 L+0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf289…21cdbacked Yes8c199.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1650%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes45c198.57$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.491,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes9c193.33$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0796313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes10c185.88$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9337…4fc6backed Yes8c185.68$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.38148.1%39 W · 42 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed Yes8c182.84$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9195852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes41c148.35$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.419541.5%81 W · 114 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc0a…ccdcbacked No55c139.83$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.322133.3%7 W · 14 L-3.3wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-23.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes10c135.27$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.171,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes37c133.39$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2354…fab1backed No64c128.12$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.514062.9%88 W · 52 L+11.8wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+20.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa3c4…b153backed No53c127.54$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.694864.6%31 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No60c127.2$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.1128737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes37c114.34$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1618534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes38c114.07$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.413,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes42c111.69$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.3939535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No53c111.29$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.985,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes36c107.25$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.21,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes39c104.48$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5574338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes33c103.37$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.341,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1db5…ff84backed Yes44c102.33$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.333333.3%11 W · 22 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No54c101.52$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.922,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes45c100.93$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.429,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes39c100.2$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9219160.7%116 W · 75 L+11.6wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e3…f004backed Yes33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3327732.5%90 W · 187 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes48c99.99$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes47c99.23$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.1719123%44 W · 147 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85e8…9301backed Yes39c98.04$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5111362.8%71 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c9…d2b8backed No55c97.92$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.2953547.5%254 W · 281 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes35c93.68$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.379,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a2c…af6cbacked No52c92.3$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.31952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed No58c91.04$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.2449854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes47c90.38$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.627,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2936…6c5fbacked No65c86.68$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.3134250.6%173 W · 169 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd610…b3e4backed Yes22c85.35$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.816550.3%83 W · 82 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34a…1a73backed No48c80.17$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.6918668.8%128 W · 58 L+27.3wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+25.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No65c76.46$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.0954966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x40e0…69e3backed No58c70$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.43259.4%19 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes26c69.58$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8764333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67d6…e01cbacked Yes37c68.16$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.34540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+55.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked No64c66.55$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.9172952.4%382 W · 347 L+34.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4397…c3f0backed Yes39c60$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.430%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x890d…7522backed Yes35c58.52$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5810652.8%56 W · 50 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes32c58.31$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6810642.5%45 W · 61 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc323…4408backed No60c56.17$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.233567.5%226 W · 109 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac4…57bfbacked Yes43c54.88$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.571643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-28.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc501…d0f1backed Yes49c50.51$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.642441.7%10 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes41c50.02$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6129732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f8f…7946backed Yes42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5d2…ef4dbacked Yes45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x938e…2ee3backed No53c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.57659.2%45 W · 31 L+5.7wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+19.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes37c49.94$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4811341.6%47 W · 66 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+20.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1098…10a7backed Yes36c49.55$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8441733.8%141 W · 276 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x39fa…0b7dbacked No58c48.71$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4640777.1%314 W · 93 L+28.1wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xef7e…aee8backed Yes42c47.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.832944.8%13 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No64c46.9$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8870770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb176…c9cbbacked Yes38c46.83$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.83425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes46c45.51$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9125239.7%100 W · 152 L-0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3738…ed32backed Yes27c45.38$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3720144.3%89 W · 112 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f01…4c3abacked No53c44.51$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8916159%95 W · 66 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No64c44.32$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.772,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef0d…ef1cbacked No45c43.95$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.1721848.6%106 W · 112 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes39c43.21$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.022,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1230…8e43backed No56c43$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1115155.6%84 W · 67 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x754b…d06abacked Yes44c42.91$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8821272.6%154 W · 58 L+22.8wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+21.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2328…e304backed Yes46c42.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.623933.3%13 W · 26 L-3.7wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-31.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6fa2…931bbacked Yes44c42.48$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.697126.8%19 W · 52 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32f0…c659backed No58c40.28$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0823547.7%112 W · 123 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No57c40.17$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.4198571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c69…4622backed No63c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.856265.5%368 W · 194 L+35.2wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed Yes49c39.65$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.391,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4f6…eadabacked No56c37.5$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6116575.8%125 W · 40 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No56c36.54$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.1652571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes48c35.55$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0632352.9%171 W · 152 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7b20…eb02backed No54c35.33$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2534846.6%162 W · 186 L+14.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f18…5b28backed Yes46c35.23$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3226566.4%176 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No58c33.89$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.181,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.