Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49f35a058deeab2a94eed771c551378572a46666f57fa651dd5cc4924a82c727
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,805
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,805 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 135 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa7a5…859cbacked No | 2c | 900$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 36c | 762.67$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.45 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a22…1ccfbacked No | 13c | 760.03$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.01 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 20c | 465.84$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…97cdbacked No | 60c | 445.22$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 62c | 409.93$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.63 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…4d2bbacked Yes | 50c | 389.42$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.02 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 58c | 344.81$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 41c | 344.1$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.7 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a94…0a7bbacked No | 9c | 320.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 54c | 317.9$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.69 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f0…8994backed No | 10c | 285.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 45c | 275.4$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.99 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…216cbacked Yes | 76c | 275.2$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 15c | 254.82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.02 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 28c | 234.48$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.47 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 12c | 221.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 39c | 202.65$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.9 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 40c | 199.95$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.57 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 79c | 198.01$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.23 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0be4…2ed6backed Yes | 41c | 194.22$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.71 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 78c | 176.58$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.68 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed Yes | 63c | 166.78$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.14 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 50c | 164.4$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 59c | 163.27$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.4 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92ba…cf4dbacked Yes | 74c | 149.81$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.55 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 38c | 129.54$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.32 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5201…34c3backed Yes | 75c | 120.92$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 36c | 115.59$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 62c | 114.59$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.54 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 38c | 111.21$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.34 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 44c | 106.49$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.27 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9003…4c59backed Yes | 36c | 103.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.55 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…ff84backed Yes | 40c | 103.58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.74 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac4…57bfbacked Yes | 42c | 102.07$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.41 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 45c | 100.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.76 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb62…d14fbacked Yes | 54c | 100.08$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.44 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 36c | 99.97$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.98 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 36c | 98.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.74 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…be31backed Yes | 66c | 98.02$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.77 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 45c | 97.24$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.49 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1206…ae1dbacked Yes | 18c | 97.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.84 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +93%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 97.02$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.09 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…9452backed Yes | 29c | 96.69$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.43 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 65c | 92.17$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.69 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 39c | 89.79$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.75 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 66c | 89.74$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 87.2$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.52 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 73c | 86.4$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x848c…5a45backed Yes | 40c | 81.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.72 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 60c | 80.2$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.12 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 64c | 80.08$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 53c | 80.04$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.07 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…77a7backed Yes | 35c | 79.61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.57 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x261e…c09fbacked Yes | 35c | 79.48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.66 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 62c | 79.16$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 64c | 78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 27c | 73.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…4fc6backed Yes | 58c | 71.69$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 71.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.33 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67d6…e01cbacked Yes | 30c | 70.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…52e9backed Yes | 64c | 69.46$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 38c | 66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.92 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 37c | 65.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.81 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 52c | 64.86$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.94 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 64c | 62.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 32c | 61.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…9c58backed Yes | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 39c | 58.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x791f…c354backed Yes | 41c | 57.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 37c | 56.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked Yes | 36c | 55.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 40c | 55.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.38 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 40c | 53.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7e…426fbacked Yes | 56c | 51.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d2…ef4dbacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a109backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc501…d0f1backed Yes | 40c | 48.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 60c | 48.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 62c | 47.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 34c | 47.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 53c | 46.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 62c | 46.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ed…8b4bbacked Yes | 53c | 44.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 112 | 23.2%26 W · 86 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb176…c9cbbacked Yes | 38c | 44.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 62c | 44.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 42c | 44.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 37c | 43.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked Yes | 77c | 40.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 63c | 39.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 72c | 39.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 67c | 39.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb627…d968backed Yes | 39c | 38.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 62c | 38.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 60c | 37.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked No | 64c | 37.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 34c | 37.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 62c | 37.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 67c | 36.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.