MLB · resolved market
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0f06d808a7664185da8583bc92856fdb726b3119b3c96ab21689535eb310460
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof St. Louis Cardinals, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,946
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,933
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,946 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 76c | 1,289$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.94 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed St. Louis Cardinals | 24c | 1,111$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$844.73 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 1,065$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.84 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 907.75$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.63 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed St. Louis Cardinals | 41c | 906.49$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.86 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 39c | 468$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.48 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed St. Louis Cardinals | 25c | 389.03$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.89 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 267.78$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.89 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ed…33bebacked Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 250.47$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +7.4wins | +0.20per pick | 56cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 240$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.8 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked St. Louis Cardinals | 27c | 208.69$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.35 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 67c | 184.95$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.64 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 41c | 165.08$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.25 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed St. Louis Cardinals | 18c | 163.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.26 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 37c | 138.3$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.11 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a0…c52bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 231 | 45.5%105 W · 126 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed St. Louis Cardinals | 41c | 118$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.62 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 30c | 117.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.13 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Cincinnati Reds | 24c | 84.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed St. Louis Cardinals | 45c | 78.8$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.34 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 78$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Cincinnati Reds | 67c | 75.67$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea4b…5885backed St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 31cpaid | +172.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed St. Louis Cardinals | 39c | 61.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.59 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 50.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed St. Louis Cardinals | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Cincinnati Reds | 73c | 37.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5db9…190ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 64c | 36.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 220 | 64.1%141 W · 79 L | +10.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 30.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed St. Louis Cardinals | 41c | 29.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Cincinnati Reds | 67c | 22.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cincinnati Reds | 70c | 16.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis CardinalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.