MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4cd4028db5fed58a544bbca6709e78e110d7f6cef28624f48dd212d170feada
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $161,694
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $162,656
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $161,694 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 43c | 135,022$58,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76,983.83 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 57c | 100,000$57,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57,000 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 57c | 15,901$9,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,034.99 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 48c | 9,998$4,829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,169.72 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 53c | 7,233$3,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,832.58 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 57c | 5,000$2,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,850 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 49c | 2,339$1,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,151.61 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 61c | 2,032$1,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,238.14 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 58c | 2,016$1,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,159.02 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 57c | 1,726$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0487…33bdbacked Over | 58c | 1,724$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 58c | 1,422$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.27 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 57c | 1,300$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 41c | 1,200$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.93 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 61c | 1,008$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.23 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Over | 57c | 812.81$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.3 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 57c | 578.11$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.82 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 57c | 473.04$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.63 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…0febbacked Over | 57c | 427.74$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.81 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 43c | 417.23$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.99 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7677…37c0backed Over | 57c | 400$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 328 | 50%164 W · 164 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Over | 57c | 345.19$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.76 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 41c | 313.8$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.79 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 63c | 304.59$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.35 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…7a58backed Under | 45c | 265.39$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.39 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 57c | 234$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.38 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Under | 35c | 230$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.39 | 172 | 52.9%91 W · 81 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 57c | 217$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.41 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 34c | 212.68$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.08 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 42c | 209.19$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.83 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 58c | 187.41$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.97 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 57c | 145.36$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.56 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 37c | 140.4$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 48c | 134.88$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.14 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 57c | 120$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1edb…a60bbacked Over | 58c | 110.03$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.82 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 49c | 107.03$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.93 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 54c | 106.16$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.03 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Over | 24c | 103$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 292 | 42.5%124 W · 168 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 46c | 100.58$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.94 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed Under | 44c | 90.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.71 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 56c | 90.46$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d53…e7aabacked Under | 68c | 88.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 108 | 53.7%58 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 57c | 79.48$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.28 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 48c | 77.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 35c | 76.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.9 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 21c | 76.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.16 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Under | 37c | 76.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.97 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 37c | 62.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Under | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x834b…3892backed Over | 57c | 52.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x500b…b1a1backed Over | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9a…9903backed Under | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 43c | 43.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x70e6…e8f9backed Over | 46c | 43.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 44c | 39.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e23…94b2backed Under | 42c | 34.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e00…d2bfbacked Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6123…8b33backed Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 390 | 53.6%209 W · 181 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 48c | 29.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Over | 64c | 25.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 74c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x453c…b749backed Over | 52c | 24.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 77c | 22.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…8620backed Over | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 320 | 54.1%173 W · 147 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 57c | 20.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db0…5b69backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -5.7wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -38%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…6a58backed Over | 57c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 127 | 53.5%68 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a00…299fbacked Under | 75c | 15.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis CardinalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.