Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1026fec15021cdadcd46f64b1c842fbcfb3dfa40946a6be77d48e8d2fc5d18f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,022
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,879
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,022 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7b8…0d21backed Down | 37c | 4,194$1,563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,562.77 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked Up | 67c | 4,036$2,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,348.61 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Down | 45c | 2,632$1,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,196.72 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Up | 46c | 2,170$1,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,163.58 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06d6…44bcbacked Up | 44c | 2,008$883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,125 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x937f…104abacked Up | 50c | 1,404$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.54 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…a6f8backed Up | 61c | 1,305$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.7 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Up | 50c | 1,151$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.41 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x91e5…0947backed Up | 63c | 1,043$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.45 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Down | 54c | 896.68$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 60c | 799.99$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf64…bf7dbacked Up | 53c | 797.29$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.28 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa719…0f74backed Down | 17c | 600$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7d…a286backed Up | 35c | 555.78$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.23 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5669…0f13backed Down | 42c | 499.99$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Down | 29c | 428.33$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.1 | 365 | 50.4%184 W · 181 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Up | 55c | 420.95$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.16 | 305 | 34.8%106 W · 199 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed Down | 53c | 400$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a17…8df6backed Down | 34c | 399.99$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed Up | 57c | 360.93$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.2 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Down | 27c | 344.1$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.64 | 304 | 43.4%132 W · 172 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db2…dacabacked Up | 48c | 329.81$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.5 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06ce…0b8bbacked Up | 52c | 263.33$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.82 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…e2afbacked Down | 10c | 257.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 141 | 43.3%61 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Up | 49c | 257.13$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.98 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c30…37b7backed Up | 62c | 243.59$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.59 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Down | 5c | 216.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 307 | 38.8%119 W · 188 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x448d…3adebacked Down | 53c | 201.13$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.6 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked Up | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x017d…8badbacked Down | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3520…3e89backed Down | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2e…96fabacked Up | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…9a4cbacked Up | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Down | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Down | 27c | 160$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c9…eac8backed Down | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…12ecbacked Down | 53c | 115.21$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.06 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4a…8a46backed Down | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -11.3wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb41c…5bd3backed Up | 47c | 105$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.7 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x83c3…404ebacked Up | 61c | 86.87$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc95b…ad65backed Down | 19c | 71.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…1b19backed Down | 19c | 71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 161 | 37.9%61 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89fb…fdfabacked Down | 20c | 61.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Up | 40c | 60.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b1…752ebacked Down | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Down | 48c | 58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 119 | 29.4%35 W · 84 L | -18.7wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed Down | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +118.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdd…6da4backed Up | 79c | 51.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd7…6ceebacked Up | 56c | 42.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Down | 34c | 41.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 93 | 12.9%12 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a1bebacked Up | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Down | 39c | 33.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e9…6144backed Down | 49c | 30.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed Up | 48c | 25.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -42%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…881bbacked Down | 59c | 21.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -5.8wins | -0.22per pick | 61cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9e29…8deabacked Up | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.