Tennis · resolved market
Wuhan Tennis Open: Jasmine Paolini vs Iga Swiatek
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd115cf63f521639bb8dfe2c714e9d8b89bf79ec4806c82a6e670aec61d481649
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Paoliniof Paolini, Swiatek
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,179
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,860
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,179 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Swiatek | 47c | 5,312$2,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500.81 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Paolini | 46c | 4,169$1,936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,232.9 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Swiatek | 50c | 3,990$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 189 | 33.9%64 W · 125 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60cd…a1b6backed Swiatek | 42c | 3,163$1,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,314.91 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Paolini | 17c | 3,000$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,494.59 | 161 | 40.4%65 W · 96 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9b…211dbacked Paolini | 17c | 2,235$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,857.12 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67a7…86cebacked Swiatek | 50c | 2,000$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.4 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Swiatek | 46c | 1,370$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.6 | 668 | 31.3%209 W · 459 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Paolini | 53c | 1,094$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.18 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Paolini | 59c | 1,036$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.66 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Paolini | 69c | 940$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.4 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Paolini | 51c | 934$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.74 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Paolini | 56c | 747.24$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.68 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Swiatek | 54c | 700.83$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.43 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed Swiatek | 30c | 673$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.74 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Swiatek | 13c | 615.78$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.24 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Swiatek | 44c | 600$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Swiatek | 40c | 591.08$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.8 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6674…865ebacked Swiatek | 40c | 500.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Paolini | 13c | 500$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27df…e67cbacked Swiatek | 73c | 308.22$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…d4d8backed Swiatek | 41c | 290.2$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…6bd3backed Swiatek | 32c | 240.28$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.37 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Swiatek | 45c | 223.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Paolini | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Paolini | 46c | 155.8$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.13 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Paolini | 16c | 125$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed Paolini | 17c | 119$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.77 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5a…5787backed Paolini | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.11 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa7…04bfbacked Swiatek | 48c | 104.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…d3dabacked Swiatek | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -20%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…a920backed Paolini | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cff…83c4backed Paolini | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 276 | 64.1%177 W · 99 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x790d…9995backed Swiatek | 41c | 90$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2174…fad8backed Swiatek | 57c | 80$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa89f…6a27backed Paolini | 50c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2f…66b2backed Paolini | 61c | 42.72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 64 | 70.3%45 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc177…e8cfbacked Swiatek | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.