Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd12089009c0ca10122e1e72ca0af5cfacdf6640dd3297f3d147ee2ff6d3c6b31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,811
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,240
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,811 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 58c | 462.73$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.04 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 63c | 344.07$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.53 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 76c | 312.07$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.15 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 14c | 169.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 42c | 135$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.05 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked Yes | 68c | 122.8$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.13 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 35c | 121.59$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.19 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 56c | 120.38$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.88 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 18c | 112.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 51c | 109.82$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.86 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 44c | 108.43$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.05 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f10…9d99backed Yes | 68c | 108.12$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.07 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 50c | 107.26$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.06 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 47c | 104.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.42 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 17c | 95.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 44c | 90.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.09 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 66c | 90.06$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 15c | 83.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 60c | 83.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.22 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 22c | 74.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 62c | 73.69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 23c | 71.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 33c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 59c | 67.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 16c | 67.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 35c | 64.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 34c | 64.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f2…9bf5backed No | 46c | 64.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 41c | 63.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 43c | 62.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 65c | 52.46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 38c | 49.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 32c | 45.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 40c | 44.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 61c | 43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 69c | 41.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed Yes | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 38c | 39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 62c | 37.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df6…b9a7backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 57c | 35.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 64c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 46c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 36c | 32.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 56c | 29.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 59c | 28.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 45c | 28.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…7bfcbacked Yes | 68c | 25.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3147…9145backed Yes | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 43c | 24.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa20b…390bbacked No | 60c | 23.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 70c | 22.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 62c | 22.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 64c | 22.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…d964backed No | 48c | 21.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 62c | 19.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a2…e032backed Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.