Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1493ee76d49c5fbe944351e517c1e47a19add2bc7ecc9c7e2c2037465f2b236
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,769
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,093
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,769 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 25c | 1,718$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.3 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 73c | 1,666$1,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.75 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 432.35$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.05 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 28c | 343.23$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.69 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 73c | 329.18$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.92 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 309.45$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 27c | 250$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 26c | 226.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 10c | 191.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 27c | 188$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.76 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 9c | 169.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 75c | 126.14$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f5…dbe4backed No | 69c | 121.07$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.3 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 121$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.51 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 119.48$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5920…e6d0backed Yes | 11c | 92.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 91.86$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…20a1backed No | 75c | 87.28$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48c0…53d5backed No | 78c | 83.31$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked Yes | 21c | 69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 28c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 80c | 51.31$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x599f…3317backed No | 75c | 49.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 125 | 78.4%98 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 77c | 49.58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 70c | 44.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 77c | 42.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 41.43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 78c | 35.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 79c | 34.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 72c | 32.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa87f…864dbacked No | 77c | 31.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 69c | 28.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 73c | 26.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 70c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 76c | 23.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 69c | 17.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 72c | 16.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 73c | 14.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 79c | 13.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.78 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.