Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x480c845b31e2c7d6d095a9d2fe5fe0deddf594185f4354990de44acb7a05e17d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,851
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,581
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,851 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 45c | 1,577$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.94 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked No | 78c | 622.94$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.74 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 50c | 462.74$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.64 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 9c | 385.39$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 53c | 281$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.87 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 49c | 264.45$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.26 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 64c | 254.22$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.67 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 56c | 250$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 48c | 250$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 48c | 240$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.32 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 55c | 221$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.45 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 55c | 220$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 53c | 198$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.07 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 45c | 194.77$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.39 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f5…dbe4backed Yes | 33c | 177$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.27 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 18c | 168$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 21c | 157$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 49c | 155.15$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.49 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 150.33$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.19 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 56c | 150$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 57c | 136.27$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.57 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 23c | 134.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 52c | 126.64$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.43 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 51c | 118.47$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.75 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes | 35c | 108.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 52c | 108.88$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.39 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 47c | 107.6$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.57 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 44c | 105$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.24 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 57c | 104.98$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.36 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 40c | 101.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…cb8dbacked No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 47c | 99.44$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.74 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 52c | 96.82$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.01 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed No | 49c | 78.73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.51 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 54c | 72.94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.51 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 51c | 66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 40c | 63.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.14 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc465…185cbacked No | 52c | 59.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 53c | 58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.05 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 50c | 52.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3473…e864backed Yes | 47c | 49.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 49c | 48.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 42c | 47.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf261…3335backed Yes | 48c | 46.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 54c | 46.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 58c | 46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 55c | 45.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 48c | 43.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 54c | 43.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 46c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked Yes | 45c | 41.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 52c | 40.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 34c | 40.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 47c | 40.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 34c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…df40backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 39.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 33c | 39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 51c | 38.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 46c | 38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4207…fe8abacked Yes | 48c | 36.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 51c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c30…0ac6backed No | 49c | 34.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 47c | 33.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa922…9a52backed Yes | 62c | 32.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 42c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7942…96d7backed Yes | 65c | 30.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 70cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7142…6743backed Yes | 45c | 29.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 47c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 53c | 28.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 49c | 26.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…c84cbacked Yes | 47c | 25.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked Yes | 46c | 25.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 51c | 24.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…f3cebacked No | 51c | 24.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked Yes | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 45c | 22.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 53c | 20.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd7…6e79backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd192…d266backed No | 59c | 17.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.