TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,664
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,236

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,664 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes18c1,266$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,035.688,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No72c875.89$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.598,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes23c862.15$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.2810,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd22…2013backed No60c439.49$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.431454.1%170 W · 144 L+31.3wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+21.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x517d…f41fbacked Yes30c407.42$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.4113048.5%63 W · 67 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes72c377.58$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.566,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes28c358.15$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.154,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes30c342.13$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.6370741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No9c325$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.991,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes40c237.46$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.8585049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes42c230.84$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.8712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No76c210$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.131,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes38c209.9$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.5481558.5%477 W · 338 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed No72c146.15$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.6463255.7%352 W · 280 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No62c136$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.941,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes27c134.54$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.462,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes29c134.13$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.214,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x39b2…157cbacked No56c131.72$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.761442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed No73c128.01$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$931,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No67c126.64$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.372,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed Yes31c123.73$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.211,04834.5%362 W · 686 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked No22c123.5$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2256424.5%138 W · 426 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No36c120$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.451,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No77c118.47$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.34,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No72c111.93$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.8279947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes52c105.74$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.256,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes39c103$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.839,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed No78c100.8$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.5421370.9%151 W · 62 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick72cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No62c100$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc556…9720backed Yes61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3925549%125 W · 130 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fd6…5ab1backed No79c100$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793562.9%22 W · 13 L-4.3wins-0.12per pick75cpaid-16.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No79c86.28$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.253,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes44c85$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.014,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes36c83.1$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.11,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes23c81$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.371,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc50c…8d41backed No76c80$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.842366.4%281 W · 142 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No53c78.23$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked No77c76$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.5263143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No66c68.06$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.999,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes20c66$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.81,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No73c65.32$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.685,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes42c62.4$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.352,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No72c61$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.874,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No64c60$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.194,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes42c59.21$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.343,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No48c58.79$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.014,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No78c57.58$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.133,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No31c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.51,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed No70c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.881848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65f7…86ddbacked Yes21c49.75$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.325758%149 W · 108 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No28c49.22$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.722,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No80c48$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.162,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed Yes42c47.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.551,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No60c47.3$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.541,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes32c47.1$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.125342.3%107 W · 146 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes45c46$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.314151.8%73 W · 68 L+10.3wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+11.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c1b…d915backed Yes35c42.42$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5726344.9%118 W · 145 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes37c40$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.251,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd3f…5d84backed No75c40$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3080275.7%607 W · 195 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xede4…1c40backed No79c37.84$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8915369.9%107 W · 46 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick74cpaid-5.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes30c35.8$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.062,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0db3…547dbacked No57c35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0217352%90 W · 83 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3904…539bbacked No58c35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.342762.8%268 W · 159 L+16.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes58c33.92$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.252,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No56c32.15$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.034,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1894…a936backed Yes39c32$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4866758%387 W · 280 L+48.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No77c30$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.14,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes35c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.442,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No76c30$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.83,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No69c30$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.83,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c29.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.22,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacac…50fbbacked No78c25.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.828360.4%171 W · 112 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No69c24$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.561,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No49c23.95$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.649262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0xb80c…827bbacked No57c23$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1127754.9%152 W · 125 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes62c22.5$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.657747%271 W · 306 L+40.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6793…1869backed No76c22$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7231564.8%204 W · 111 L-13.5wins-0.04per pick69cpaid-0.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1890…d328backed No67c20.21$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.632737%10 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes60c20.06$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No67c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.32,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7942…96d7backed No70c17.26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12633.3%2 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.36per pick70cpaid-50.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No76c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.42,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed62…c51dbacked No69c14.89$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2734628.9%100 W · 246 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x914e…8355backed No74c14.58$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7816859.5%100 W · 68 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e28…4983backed No78c13.64$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6433654.2%182 W · 154 L-9.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa51…6199backed No80c12.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1062275.2%468 W · 154 L+15.5wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.