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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Arkansas Razorbacksof Arkansas Razorbacks, Mississippi State Bulldogs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$109,732
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$144,151

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $109,732 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf152…64aabacked Arkansas Razorbacks72c20,822$14,984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,838.412364.2%79 W · 44 L+4.4wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Mississippi State Bulldogs27c13,570$3,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,611.15,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Mississippi State Bulldogs28c10,346$2,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,896.91,39752.7%736 W · 661 L+26.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e3a…3246backed Mississippi State Bulldogs8c9,572$766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$765.7614940.3%60 W · 89 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Mississippi State Bulldogs27c4,248$1,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,153.9312,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Mississippi State Bulldogs28c3,505$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$988.131,43647.5%682 W · 754 L-18.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Mississippi State Bulldogs12c3,415$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.622,04832.7%670 W · 1,378 L-16.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6a6…a6d3backed Arkansas Razorbacks72c3,234$2,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903.972871.4%20 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Mississippi State Bulldogs28c2,611$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$734.531,51147.8%722 W · 789 L-35.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Mississippi State Bulldogs17c1,748$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.635,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6756…8edcbacked Mississippi State Bulldogs35c1,435$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003023.3%7 W · 23 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked Mississippi State Bulldogs30c1,189$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3531,98326.4%523 W · 1,460 L-55.5wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Arkansas Razorbacks78c961.95$746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.673,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Mississippi State Bulldogs14c808.95$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.344,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Mississippi State Bulldogs29c785$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.6599848.4%483 W · 515 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Mississippi State Bulldogs28c704$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.1260548.9%296 W · 309 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Mississippi State Bulldogs14c699.25$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.92,01250%1,006 W · 1,006 L+22.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Arkansas Razorbacks73c617.58$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.7525946.3%120 W · 139 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb295…d1e7backed Mississippi State Bulldogs28c607.61$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.9418230.8%56 W · 126 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1a9…e22ebacked Arkansas Razorbacks66c551.05$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.3637441.7%156 W · 218 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafb8…505cbacked Mississippi State Bulldogs28c485.39$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.814427.3%12 W · 32 L-4.5wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-42.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Mississippi State Bulldogs13c477.18$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.993,68442.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L+32.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Mississippi State Bulldogs3c450$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.52,55541.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6fc…3e7fbacked Arkansas Razorbacks71c425.48$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.48771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+37.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f22…55f7backed Arkansas Razorbacks69c360.8$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.84544.4%20 W · 25 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-20.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Mississippi State Bulldogs26c301.1$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.292,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec56…dd09backed Mississippi State Bulldogs28c300$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$843330.3%10 W · 23 L-5.4wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-38.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Mississippi State Bulldogs22c276.61$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.791,91049.6%947 W · 963 L+30.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf280…b65bbacked Mississippi State Bulldogs11c271.55$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3119332.1%62 W · 131 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Arkansas Razorbacks74c270.27$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.271,23147%578 W · 653 L-17.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Mississippi State Bulldogs27c222.22$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604,55250.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L-36.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c9e…bba8backed Mississippi State Bulldogs33c214$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.414643.2%63 W · 83 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfce0…ff19backed Mississippi State Bulldogs28c200$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+30.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x534b…370bbacked Mississippi State Bulldogs27c200$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541540%6 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3eff…ae12backed Mississippi State Bulldogs29c194.21$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3242339.2%166 W · 257 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2dc4…0c92backed Mississippi State Bulldogs27c191.07$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6799045.6%451 W · 539 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Mississippi State Bulldogs28c188.39$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.941,63347.3%773 W · 860 L+25.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Arkansas Razorbacks79c180.49$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.868254.3%370 W · 312 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Mississippi State Bulldogs17c165.68$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.691,49348.7%727 W · 766 L-1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f6b…075fbacked Arkansas Razorbacks68c151.51$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.4814151.1%72 W · 69 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Mississippi State Bulldogs26c148.93$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.721,48743%639 W · 848 L+50.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x19f8…98f9backed Arkansas Razorbacks74c135.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.1448462.8%304 W · 180 L-0.5wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6809…b188backed Arkansas Razorbacks74c135.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.142962.1%18 W · 11 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick72cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e31…5e8ebacked Mississippi State Bulldogs27c129.63$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+31.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf33…3773backed Mississippi State Bulldogs28c110$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.830%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Mississippi State Bulldogs17c103.76$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.924,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6900…9a4bbacked Arkansas Razorbacks73c100$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271450%7 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+35.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8236…6479backed Mississippi State Bulldogs28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281650%8 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3ca…e09dbacked Arkansas Razorbacks73c100$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa341…0aeabacked Arkansas Razorbacks74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick57cpaid+24.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb80d…0f4ebacked Arkansas Razorbacks74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+18.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x888f…d6aebacked Arkansas Razorbacks74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Mississippi State Bulldogs29c99.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291,26043.3%545 W · 715 L+34.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6f0…5701backed Mississippi State Bulldogs28c99.3$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.836942.3%156 W · 213 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5a6…3d19backed Mississippi State Bulldogs28c96.43$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9663…5b70backed Mississippi State Bulldogs28c92.39$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.871040%4 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8791…4c9abacked Mississippi State Bulldogs26c77.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2821443.9%94 W · 120 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaafa…3471backed Mississippi State Bulldogs27c74.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2025230.6%77 W · 175 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b50…87fbbacked Arkansas Razorbacks71c70.16$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.166756.7%38 W · 29 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+14%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Mississippi State Bulldogs28c68.95$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.041612.5%2 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick26cpaid-72.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Arkansas Razorbacks71c67.92$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.73,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Mississippi State Bulldogs22c62$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.532,57947.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L-42.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Mississippi State Bulldogs28c60$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.82,19433.4%733 W · 1,461 L+19.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa55…06c0backed Mississippi State Bulldogs28c58.71$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.441353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+12.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Mississippi State Bulldogs28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141,07046.9%502 W · 568 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Arkansas Razorbacks71c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.519851.5%102 W · 96 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a50…ea80backed Mississippi State Bulldogs29c41.83$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1312141.3%50 W · 71 L+12.3wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+40.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdd05…2d29backed Mississippi State Bulldogs27c40.74$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7279…35d8backed Arkansas Razorbacks74c40.54$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68c4…d7dfbacked Mississippi State Bulldogs27c37.04$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1017634.7%61 W · 115 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+20.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdad…9eaebacked Mississippi State Bulldogs28c37$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3617241.3%71 W · 101 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe315…3911backed Mississippi State Bulldogs30c33.32$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0921651.4%111 W · 105 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9190…896dbacked Arkansas Razorbacks67c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x085d…5302backed Arkansas Razorbacks73c23.01$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2113550.4%68 W · 67 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9405…c071backed Arkansas Razorbacks72c20.7$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.844549.4%220 W · 225 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b12…7a77backed Arkansas Razorbacks71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.852353.5%280 W · 243 L-17.9wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x58e0…be18backed Arkansas Razorbacks73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.48664%55 W · 31 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.