MLB · resolved market
Nationals vs. Mariners
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd20337605bf8c2f1bbfb75ccc6d6405cfc076b714d42d54e36ba69216e2b90bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Marinersof Nationals, Mariners
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,772
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,173
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,772 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xce1f…41a9backed Nationals | 42c | 30,626$12,765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,764.56 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Mariners | 58c | 14,125$8,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,884.32 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67a5…9996backed Nationals | 0c | 5,334$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Mariners | 56c | 4,580$2,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,015.35 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Mariners | 59c | 3,757$2,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,543.43 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Mariners | 61c | 3,612$2,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,408.52 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Nationals | 39c | 3,600$1,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,403.99 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mariners | 60c | 1,893$1,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.19 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Mariners | 59c | 1,860$1,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.37 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Mariners | 59c | 1,180$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.52 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Nationals | 31c | 1,083$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.89 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Mariners | 60c | 829.76$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.2 | 885 | 49.7%440 W · 445 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Mariners | 60c | 738$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.2 | 436 | 54.8%239 W · 197 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…3a6cbacked Mariners | 60c | 600$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Nationals | 41c | 500$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…42c9backed Mariners | 60c | 437.8$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.12 | 401 | 52.4%210 W · 191 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Mariners | 59c | 427.63$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.35 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb26…94ddbacked Nationals | 8c | 402$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 123 | 14.6%18 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6f…3838backed Nationals | 9c | 333.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 405 | 47.4%192 W · 213 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24b9…bcb1backed Nationals | 8c | 311.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 223 | 12.1%27 W · 196 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Mariners | 59c | 300$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Mariners | 59c | 241.91$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.18 | 764 | 56%428 W · 336 L | +32.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Mariners | 73c | 241.1$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.27 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Mariners | 56c | 230.35$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.35 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Mariners | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Mariners | 62c | 161.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.39 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Nationals | 41c | 141.63$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.07 | 160 | 55.6%89 W · 71 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec75…2e8fbacked Mariners | 62c | 122$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Nationals | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Mariners | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 242 | 50.8%123 W · 119 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9228…e41abacked Nationals | 34c | 92.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 177 | 32.8%58 W · 119 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Mariners | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked Nationals | 38c | 80.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed Mariners | 64c | 62.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 806 | 80%645 W · 161 L | +173.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…01dabacked Nationals | 38c | 49.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 117 | 57.3%67 W · 50 L | +9.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Nationals | 41c | 43.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 159 | 49.1%78 W · 81 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Mariners | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Nationals | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…793dbacked Mariners | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Nationals | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 695 | 47.5%330 W · 365 L | -16.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa38b…834bbacked Mariners | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.