NBA · resolved market
Mavericks vs. Pelicans: O/U 241.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd257adffcb74b46fca62714a9a8830c99f5763241a5163be521ed97cff67f98b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,401
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,720
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,401 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 50c | 3,600$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,800 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Under | 53c | 2,327$1,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,093.77 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…0888backed Over | 47c | 2,280$1,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,075.2 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Under | 53c | 1,419$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.32 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3242…0e0bbacked Over | 50c | 1,201$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 50c | 1,188$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.76 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 183 | 45.4%83 W · 100 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98da…a9ebbacked Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…0a17backed Under | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbda…5a5ebacked Over | 47c | 206.38$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 55c | 196.43$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.75 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 134.39$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.04 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…44f3backed Over | 49c | 111.22$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 522 | 42.7%223 W · 299 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…054ebacked Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc079…8881backed Under | 52c | 96.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 47c | 75.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 48c | 75.74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Under | 57c | 75$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 249 | 55%137 W · 112 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d43…86e7backed Over | 48c | 70.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 49c | 61.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70af…bcf2backed Under | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ce…14b4backed Under | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…272cbacked Over | 50c | 42.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 52c | 38.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Under | 51c | 31.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 185 | 49.2%91 W · 94 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67bc…4d94backed Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…2aefbacked Under | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 314 | 30.3%95 W · 219 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mavericks vs. Pelicans: O/U 241.5this page
- Mavericks vs. PelicansPelicans won
- Mavericks vs. Pelicans: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Mavericks vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 122.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Pelicans: O/U 237.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Pelicans: O/U 238.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Pelicans: O/U 239.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Pelicans: O/U 240.5Under won
- Spread: Mavericks (-1.5)Pelicans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.