NBA · resolved market
Mavericks vs. Pelicans: O/U 240.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38fdaf89a8fbb4026ccf5b67e6a043fd10778077febfa35d93e7f497f7088b9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,341
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,358
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,341 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked Over | 52c | 3,338$1,725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,725.04 | 296 | 52.7%156 W · 140 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 3,136$1,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,597.12 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 51c | 2,687$1,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,317.47 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 485 | 46.4%225 W · 260 L | -14.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb153…d8b5backed Over | 52c | 1,140$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.6 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 48c | 991$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.2 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 49c | 938.82$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.75 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 52c | 863$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.69 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed Under | 48c | 800$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416 | 193 | 51.8%100 W · 93 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 49c | 308.04$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.94 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 49c | 281.99$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.18 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 49c | 250$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 51c | 222.98$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.72 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15a3…718ebacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 46c | 191.2$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6611…17e7backed Under | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…9ae0backed Under | 51c | 147.06$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.06 | 383 | 47%180 W · 203 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Under | 51c | 135.61$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.45 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 51c | 98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x474b…c5b1backed Under | 51c | 95.37$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8af0…1929backed Under | 51c | 95.24$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 83$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.45 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Under | 54c | 82.65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.02 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcba…d962backed Under | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 50c | 80.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.35 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01fa…c2edbacked Under | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 234 | 45.7%107 W · 127 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42bf…30f7backed Under | 50c | 54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5373…e46bbacked Under | 51c | 48.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 51c | 46.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Under | 50c | 39.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 50c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 49c | 22.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…61ecbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mavericks vs. Pelicans: O/U 240.5this page
- Mavericks vs. PelicansPelicans won
- Mavericks vs. Pelicans: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Mavericks vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 122.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Pelicans: O/U 237.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Pelicans: O/U 238.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Pelicans: O/U 239.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Pelicans: O/U 241.5Under won
- Spread: Mavericks (-1.5)Pelicans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.