Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2b4323d152181bfcdacf186dbfe922f308545875c3e59112ab5ccdc8a5ff574
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,498
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,498 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 24c | 332.6$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.23 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 9c | 331.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 312.4$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.75 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 6c | 199.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 30c | 173.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 70c | 140.16$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.45 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 29c | 130.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 129.65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.73 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 79c | 127.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e04…80babacked Yes | 25c | 124.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 9c | 115.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 36c | 107.01$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.51 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 104.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 32c | 96.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 96.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 86.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xee88…49a4backed Yes | 30c | 81.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 25c | 71.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 68c | 58.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 25c | 57.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 40c | 57.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 62c | 55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 30c | 51.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 48.44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…2264backed No | 72c | 47.34$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 36c | 45.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 33c | 44.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 67c | 38.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 66c | 33.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 31c | 33.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 72c | 31.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 67c | 30.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…8c10backed No | 75c | 29.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 93 | 66.7%62 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 79c | 29.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 76c | 27.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 69c | 25.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…79a1backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 23.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 68c | 20.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0456…3235backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 18.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 18.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77a4…c217backed No | 70c | 17.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 40 | 75%30 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 73c | 16.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 16.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked No | 79c | 14.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on July 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C or higher on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.