Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40851f17b9d2a43add7635e3391f482a4efd7f7fa2c4b4d57be19f581f3a21a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,085
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,618
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,085 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 33c | 2,932$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,951.59 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…265cbacked No | 64c | 1,022$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.58 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 66c | 500$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8792…4174backed Yes | 61c | 496.84$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.33 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 66c | 442$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.72 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 27c | 336.59$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.84 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 60c | 330.82$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.15 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 30c | 310.6$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.88 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 67c | 300$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 67c | 300$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 32c | 300$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.26 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 67c | 289$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.63 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 35c | 277.31$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.08 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 267.51$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 34c | 219.86$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.11 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 52c | 202.12$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.16 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 23c | 195.47$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.46 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 58c | 194.88$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 67c | 170$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.9 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 66c | 168$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.88 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 31c | 161.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.53 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 31c | 155.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.7 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 13c | 152.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 21c | 151.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 34c | 150$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 69c | 144.13$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.13 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 10c | 142.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 44c | 139.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e04…80babacked No | 52c | 138.49$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.97 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 67c | 129.71$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.91 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 121.25$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.55 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…12ecbacked No | 68c | 115$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.05 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 39c | 110$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 61c | 108.32$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.33 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 69c | 103.95$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 101.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.7 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 11c | 100.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 53c | 94.98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.22 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 61c | 89.62$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.17 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 31c | 87$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.03 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 49c | 82.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.86 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 67c | 80$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 67c | 77.03$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.69 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 76.91$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 16c | 75.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 67c | 75.61$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.66 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x296e…0b9abacked Yes | 32c | 74.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.52 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f08…7249backed No | 69c | 71.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…8147backed Yes | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 23c | 70.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed No | 52c | 64.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 61c | 60.87$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 41c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.66 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 27c | 57.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.13 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 57.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.25 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…844dbacked No | 71c | 53.01$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 128 | 76.6%98 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 68c | 51.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 42c | 50.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 75c | 49.47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 64c | 43.52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 60c | 43.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2acb…feb2backed Yes | 75c | 40.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.32per pick | 61cpaid | -63%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cae…559abacked No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 67c | 39.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46d6…4c39backed No | 58c | 39.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 58c | 37.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 33c | 35.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 68c | 34.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 52c | 33.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x846b…63b6backed No | 63c | 33.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 33c | 32.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 67c | 31.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 67c | 31.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 40c | 30.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 65c | 30.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 43c | 30.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 43c | 29.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 52c | 26.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6784…7565backed No | 68c | 22.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 67c | 22.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 70c | 22.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 68c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 49c | 21.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9149…f2dabacked Yes | 57c | 20.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 28 | 85.7%24 W · 4 L | +6.5wins | +0.23per pick | 62cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 52c | 20.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…346abacked Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5953…192fbacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed6…47b6backed Yes | 62c | 19.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed Yes | 71c | 18.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 55c | 18.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C or higher on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.