TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on July 6?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,085
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,618

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,085 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc9de…81d9backed Yes33c2,932$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,951.5942036.4%153 W · 267 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef32…265cbacked No64c1,022$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658.588845.5%40 W · 48 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfe41…9f23backed No66c500$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3306845.6%31 W · 37 L-7.4wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-22.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8792…4174backed Yes61c496.84$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.334953.1%26 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No66c442$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.722,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No27c336.59$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.842,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes60c330.82$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.156,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No30c310.6$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.884,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No67c300$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No67c300$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20197152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes32c300$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.2627129.2%79 W · 192 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No67c289$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.6386949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc15…cca6backed Yes35c277.31$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.0826441.3%109 W · 155 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No33c267.51$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.8112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes34c219.86$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.112,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f51…8b09backed Yes52c202.12$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.1614638.4%56 W · 90 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+37.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No23c195.47$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.464,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No58c194.88$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1141,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed No67c170$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.971649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed No66c168$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.8889557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4e3…5296backed Yes31c161.53$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.5320339.9%81 W · 122 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes31c155.98$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.74,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No13c152.42$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.526,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x652d…46b3backed No21c151.83$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5261820.7%128 W · 490 L+36.9wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes34c150$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$992,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes69c144.13$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.1320662.1%128 W · 78 L-14.0wins-0.07per pick69cpaid-13.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x331d…8846backed No10c142.23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8328244%124 W · 158 L+38.6wins+0.14per pick30cpaid+29.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No44c139.99$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.844366.1%293 W · 150 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e04…80babacked No52c138.49$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.976349.2%31 W · 32 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick41cpaid-2.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x437b…95f5backed No67c129.71$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.9124546.9%115 W · 130 L-12.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No67c121.25$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.552,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6dc…12ecbacked No68c115$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.051225%3 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-58.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No39c110$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.92,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c57…372dbacked Yes61c108.32$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.331,53124.2%371 W · 1,160 L+15.4wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1570…de29backed No69c103.95$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7244058.2%256 W · 184 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+12.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes25c101.1$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.79,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f9e…c96bbacked No11c100.39$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9241331%128 W · 285 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8db2…d0f5backed No19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3972125.5%184 W · 537 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x164c…3e39backed Yes53c94.98$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.221,03451.3%530 W · 504 L+69.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xea21…f753backed Yes61c89.62$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.1723668.2%161 W · 75 L+18.8wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes31c87$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.035,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x438a…61c4backed Yes49c82.15$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.8623143.3%100 W · 131 L+19.0wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+36.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3bbc…e05dbacked No67c80$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.417255.2%95 W · 77 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No67c77.03$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.693,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No63c76.91$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1510,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No16c75.8$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.344,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x14ad…69f5backed No67c75.61$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6626744.2%118 W · 149 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x296e…0b9abacked Yes32c74.13$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.525722.8%13 W · 44 L-7.1wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-37.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0f08…7249backed No69c71.98$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501573.3%11 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick66cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4149…8147backed Yes57c70.18$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.188444%37 W · 47 L+7.6wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+15.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No23c70.15$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x116d…fbf1backed No52c64.86$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0517859%105 W · 73 L+20.1wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+26.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed Yes61c60.87$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.991,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd615…ae32backed Yes60c60$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.9133962.8%213 W · 126 L+40.8wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+17.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes41c60$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.661,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No26c57.69$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.142,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes27c57.53$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.131,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes32c57.32$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.253,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes32c56$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.089,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe37a…844dbacked No71c53.01$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6412876.6%98 W · 30 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe25c…7908backed No68c51.73$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.0622857.5%131 W · 97 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b72…dc2ebacked No42c50.5$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2128441.5%118 W · 166 L-18.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-17.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked Yes34c49.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.9944646.2%206 W · 240 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe39f…c040backed Yes75c49.47$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.1614832.4%48 W · 100 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes64c43.52$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4543050.2%216 W · 214 L+21.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd71…1281backed Yes60c43.43$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.3453951.9%280 W · 259 L+54.4wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2acb…feb2backed Yes75c40.01$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.08728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.32per pick61cpaid-63%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes46c40$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.838655.7%215 W · 171 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc5…d6b7backed No68c40$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2727461.7%169 W · 105 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cae…559abacked No68c40$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.22857.1%16 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed No67c39.51$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3685330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x46d6…4c39backed No58c39.42$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes58c37.98$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.772,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3fa…4531backed Yes33c35.12$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5931936.1%115 W · 204 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcff7…2fb1backed No68c34.71$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6621451.9%111 W · 103 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed Yes52c33.3$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.022,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x846b…63b6backed No63c33.2$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.875343.4%23 W · 30 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9418…e9f8backed Yes33c32.45$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.741,10830%332 W · 776 L-38.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed No67c31.33$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1194552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No67c31.23$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x879d…b501backed Yes40c30.92$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5560519.7%119 W · 486 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No65c30.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked No43c30.18$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9857948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed29…3024backed No36c29.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9324139.8%96 W · 145 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No43c29.56$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7154867.3%369 W · 179 L+26.4wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ae4…7c46backed No52c26.32$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6935264.8%228 W · 124 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No80c25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes60c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1041966.6%279 W · 140 L+36.9wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+13.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6784…7565backed No68c22.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.366451.6%33 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No67c22.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.061,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ece…1949backed No70c22.07$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4517361.8%107 W · 66 L-9.8wins-0.06per pick68cpaid-9.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4167…f99abacked No68c22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.961,03668.6%711 W · 325 L-33.9wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x92aa…0341backed Yes49c21.06$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.847926.6%21 W · 58 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-33%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9149…f2dabacked Yes57c20.31$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.662885.7%24 W · 4 L+6.5wins+0.23per pick62cpaid+41.8%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xa2ed…9d98backed No52c20.25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5382268.7%565 W · 257 L+72.3wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x1733…346abacked Yes71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.85935.6%21 W · 38 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5953…192fbacked Yes57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.62166.7%14 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ed6…47b6backed Yes62c19.24$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.41366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+24.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa61c…4dd6backed Yes71c18.88$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.5720341.9%85 W · 118 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+16.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes55c18.67$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.321,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.