NFL · resolved market
Steelers vs. Lions: O/U 51.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2d8bfbe29e13b13c9beb1c9f51691c6754c73730bfaa7127365356b1d28c1f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,762
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,700
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,762 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1de3…0321backed Over | 53c | 14,000$7,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,581.39 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 47c | 13,195$6,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,201.77 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 1,074$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.33 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Over | 54c | 833.81$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.81 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Under | 48c | 599.94$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.97 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Over | 41c | 416.9$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.97 | 71 | 64.8%46 W · 25 L | +10.7wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Under | 51c | 311.76$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Over | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 140 | 60.7%85 W · 55 L | +14.3wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 47c | 122.48$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.98 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed Over | 53c | 113$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 110 | 54.5%60 W · 50 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Over | 52c | 100.12$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.26 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x201a…66a8backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1da…bdc2backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…e568backed Over | 53c | 92.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Under | 47c | 92.45$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…d43cbacked Over | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88a4…a82dbacked Under | 49c | 52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 47c | 50.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 209 | 44.5%93 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd527…81e4backed Under | 49c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…600dbacked Over | 51c | 47.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc271…1bfdbacked Under | 62c | 45.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 38c | 45.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…1dbebacked Over | 52c | 38.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 46c | 31.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 24.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a8…9bd6backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 56cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49d7…1635backed Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Steelers vs. Lions: O/U 51.5this page
- Spread: Lions (-6.5)Steelers won
- Spread: Lions (-7.5)Steelers won
- Steelers vs. LionsSteelers won
- Steelers vs. Lions: 1H O/U 26.5Under won
- Steelers vs. Lions: O/U 49.5Over won
- Steelers vs. Lions: O/U 50.5Over won
- Steelers vs. Lions: O/U 52.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.