NFL · resolved market
Steelers vs. Lions: O/U 52.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1584df5b7873eb5be5c392ff27982911df72dee072014e122bef564e7180e6bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,497
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,006
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,497 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Over | 50c | 21,326$10,663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,663 | 168 | 60.7%102 W · 66 L | +18.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 50c | 14,281$7,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,140.75 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 53c | 11,000$5,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,789.99 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…1914backed Over | 48c | 2,971$1,426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,544.83 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 49c | 2,523$1,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,294.63 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Under | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.11 | 140 | 35%49 W · 91 L | -12.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef5…325ebacked Over | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 909.35$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.94 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…146ebacked Under | 52c | 769.23$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 49c | 390$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.9 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 116 | 40.5%47 W · 69 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86c…6ec8backed Over | 48c | 250$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 48c | 250$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Over | 49c | 202.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.98 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Under | 51c | 199.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 50c | 132.66$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.33 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 22c | 131.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.35 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 54c | 127$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.58 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 46c | 111.29$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.1 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…a7efbacked Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Under | 52c | 96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 146 | 41.8%61 W · 85 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 45c | 81.42$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.82 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e4…0478backed Under | 53c | 79.74$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.26 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…15adbacked Under | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1b…0adebacked Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f55…bae8backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 160 | 48.1%77 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Over | 50c | 39.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 52c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 47c | 22.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 163 | 49.7%81 W · 82 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Steelers vs. Lions: O/U 52.5this page
- Spread: Lions (-6.5)Steelers won
- Spread: Lions (-7.5)Steelers won
- Steelers vs. LionsSteelers won
- Steelers vs. Lions: 1H O/U 26.5Under won
- Steelers vs. Lions: O/U 49.5Over won
- Steelers vs. Lions: O/U 50.5Over won
- Steelers vs. Lions: O/U 51.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.