NFL · resolved market

Steelers vs. Lions: O/U 49.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd72da5ec301af647442c9ebb4368fbe5e5de96a8b73f68d2505c4896e830a96

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 21, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $70,801
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $77,238

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,801 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4c75…8c7abacked Under	45c	16,752$7,536 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,535.51	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-2.4wins	-0.20per pick	45cpaid	-46%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	39c	8,536$3,311 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,311.38	1,196	49.9%597 W · 599 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over	55c	6,327$3,479 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,848.69	758	52.5%398 W · 360 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	47c	6,055$2,846 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,846.5	502	42.4%213 W · 289 L	-5.6wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Over	53c	6,019$3,190 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,829.04	176	48.9%86 W · 90 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5351…9b3cbacked Under	40c	5,000$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	14	50%7 W · 7 L	+1.0wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf7e…339abacked Over	62c	4,856$3,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,855.79	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-3.2wins	-0.29per pick	56cpaid	-54.3%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa5b3…0476backed Over	60c	3,029$1,822 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,206.55	58	55.2%32 W · 26 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x606f…b3b5backed Over	53c	2,825$1,497 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,327.75	26	34.6%9 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Under	47c	2,128$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	50	42%21 W · 29 L	-3.1wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Under	39c	1,500$585 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$585	75	30.7%23 W · 52 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Over	60c	1,050$630 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$420	158	51.9%82 W · 76 L	+6.5wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8dcf…146ebacked Over	60c	786.88$472 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$314.75	65	40%26 W · 39 L	-4.4wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Over	55c	545.79$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$245.61	139	59%82 W · 57 L	+12.5wins	+0.09per pick	50cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Under	48c	529.36$253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$253.29	600	49.3%296 W · 304 L	+21.0wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under	40c	514.91$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206.12	532	53%282 W · 250 L	+19.1wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under	38c	500$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190	650	48.3%314 W · 336 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Over	55c	360$198 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$162	140	60.7%85 W · 55 L	+14.3wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	+23.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4627…b4b0backed Over	60c	333.33$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$133.33	58	69%40 W · 18 L	+7.7wins	+0.13per pick	56cpaid	+24.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Over	59c	250$148 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.5	192	40.1%77 W · 115 L	-16.2wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Under	40c	250$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	266	49.6%132 W · 134 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over	55c	240$132 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108	163	60.1%98 W · 65 L	+16.9wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed Over	55c	240$132 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108	117	58.1%68 W · 49 L	+9.5wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Over	55c	240$132 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108	118	59.3%70 W · 48 L	+11.2wins	+0.09per pick	50cpaid	+19.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6684…95d1backed Under	46c	217.39$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	-2.5wins	-0.12per pick	60cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Over	55c	210$116 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94.5	120	57.5%69 W · 51 L	+9.6wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xea31…f286backed Under	47c	200$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-2.1wins	-0.19per pick	46cpaid	-51%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under	39c	200$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	276	33.3%92 W · 184 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xff63…5aa1backed Under	44c	186.84$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.42	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-1.6wins	-0.11per pick	47cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Over	55c	180$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81	155	56.8%88 W · 67 L	+13.4wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+19.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under	47c	172$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.36	356	48%171 W · 185 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Under	40c	145$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	320	43.8%140 W · 180 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf79e…9a84backed Over	55c	120$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54	61	47.5%29 W · 32 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa97e…7753backed Over	55c	120$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54	104	61.5%64 W · 40 L	+12.5wins	+0.12per pick	50cpaid	+25.4%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked Over	55c	120$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54	110	58.2%64 W · 46 L	+11.0wins	+0.10per pick	48cpaid	+19.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa48d…b023backed Over	55c	120$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54	103	59.2%61 W · 42 L	+9.5wins	+0.09per pick	50cpaid	+22.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa800…cc71backed Over	55c	120$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54	96	59.4%57 W · 39 L	+9.2wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	+21%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed Over	55c	120$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54	109	58.7%64 W · 45 L	+9.4wins	+0.09per pick	50cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed Over	55c	120$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54	97	57.7%56 W · 41 L	+7.9wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+18.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Over	55c	120$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54	112	65.2%73 W · 39 L	+16.1wins	+0.14per pick	51cpaid	+29.8%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed Over	55c	120$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54	118	56.8%67 W · 51 L	+9.1wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+15.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Over	55c	118.36$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.26	123	56.9%70 W · 53 L	+6.8wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Over	43c	100$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.14	647	47.3%306 W · 341 L	+42.5wins	+0.07per pick	41cpaid	+56.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Under	41c	100$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	138	44.9%62 W · 76 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ff9…ce7abacked Over	60c	100$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40	116	50.9%59 W · 57 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under	39c	100$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	160	45%72 W · 88 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under	39c	98.36$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.36	1,065	51.3%546 W · 519 L	+25.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a52…9ad6backed Over	61c	98.36$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.36	55	58.2%32 W · 23 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	60cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Under	40c	84$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.6	368	26.9%99 W · 269 L	-17.1wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd2dd…ea96backed Over	59c	83.8$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.59	12	75%9 W · 3 L	+2.5wins	+0.21per pick	54cpaid	+50.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Over	54c	80$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.44	169	57.4%97 W · 72 L	+15.7wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd2e5…ebeabacked Over	18c	79.99$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.99	196	51.5%101 W · 95 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93a2…5181backed Under	47c	62.71$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.47	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	-6.8wins	-0.32per pick	47cpaid	-72.3%equal weight	34-0.15 edge/pick
0x31ce…88cdbacked Over	55c	60$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27	133	57.1%76 W · 57 L	+9.2wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed Over	55c	60$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27	154	53.9%83 W · 71 L	+10.8wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeb01…2783backed Over	55c	60$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27	124	59.7%74 W · 50 L	+12.0wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x96f4…8081backed Over	55c	60$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27	116	58.6%68 W · 48 L	+10.1wins	+0.09per pick	50cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1941…c47fbacked Over	55c	60$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27	101	55.4%56 W · 45 L	+5.9wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7cae…bf8abacked Over	55c	60$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27	124	58.1%72 W · 52 L	+10.6wins	+0.09per pick	49cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9adf…3f2fbacked Over	55c	60$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27	103	61.2%63 W · 40 L	+11.3wins	+0.11per pick	50cpaid	+24.5%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0c2d…2570backed Over	55c	60$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27	96	51%49 W · 47 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9ea…810abacked Over	55c	60$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27	91	64.8%59 W · 32 L	+12.5wins	+0.14per pick	51cpaid	+28.5%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xdcf7…bcbebacked Over	55c	60$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27	114	63.2%72 W · 42 L	+14.5wins	+0.13per pick	50cpaid	+26.6%equal weight	62+0.10 edge/pick
0xd2dc…b3c5backed Over	55c	60$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27	101	61.4%62 W · 39 L	+11.3wins	+0.11per pick	50cpaid	+24.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6b82…2d2abacked Over	55c	60$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27	108	64.8%70 W · 38 L	+15.5wins	+0.14per pick	50cpaid	+29.4%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0xb95e…c6d6backed Under	40c	60$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	112	53.6%60 W · 52 L	+4.7wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x778e…ccd1backed Over	55c	60$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27	43	65.1%28 W · 15 L	+6.3wins	+0.15per pick	50cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under	40c	57.33$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.75	163	49.7%81 W · 82 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Over	52c	56.23$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.99	135	60%81 W · 54 L	+14.7wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe601…c728backed Over	55c	55.88$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.15	107	61.7%66 W · 41 L	+12.0wins	+0.11per pick	51cpaid	+21.9%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd1a7…07cdbacked Under	41c	55.25$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.43	38	57.9%22 W · 16 L	+4.8wins	+0.13per pick	45cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under	41c	54.6$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.57	342	47.4%162 W · 180 L	-4.9wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea2e…d695backed Over	55c	53.79$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.21	107	57.9%62 W · 45 L	+8.8wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Over	27c	47.44$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.55	207	57.5%119 W · 88 L	+17.5wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x3f6a…9b88backed Under	43c	46.51$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-2.1wins	-0.19per pick	56cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb433…f543backed Under	45c	45$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.25	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.37per pick	37cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Over	56c	35.73$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.87	346	52.9%183 W · 163 L	+16.0wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1acc…35b7backed Over	60c	33.33$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.33	31	61.3%19 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	62cpaid	+2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Over	60c	33.33$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.33	112	60.7%68 W · 44 L	+10.3wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under	39c	30.76$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	209	44.5%93 W · 116 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbf07…4a12backed Under	48c	30$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	16	50%8 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd62d…02ccbacked Over	61c	24.59$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.59	199	54.8%109 W · 90 L	-4.8wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6df…22a9backed Over	55c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9	108	61.1%66 W · 42 L	+11.4wins	+0.11per pick	51cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Steelers vs. Lions: O/U 49.5this page
Spread: Lions (-6.5)Steelers won
Spread: Lions (-7.5)Steelers won
Steelers vs. LionsSteelers won
Steelers vs. Lions: 1H O/U 26.5Under won
Steelers vs. Lions: O/U 50.5Over won
Steelers vs. Lions: O/U 51.5Over won
Steelers vs. Lions: O/U 52.5Over won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Steelers vs. Lions: O/U 49.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event