Champions League · resolved market
Sporting CP vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd30c6be9bd0a41324c4ce343e0b407563957e91ee31989ad854f2e249ab5d713
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,018
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,821
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,018 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x025d…d284backed Under | 76c | 6,279$4,772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,507.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…e8b8backed Over | 24c | 3,259$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 77c | 3,106$2,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.1 | 582 | 48.8%284 W · 298 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x183f…1a49backed Over | 24c | 3,020$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 23c | 1,396$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.1 | 243 | 27.2%66 W · 177 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee4…9f0cbacked Under | 77c | 1,299$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.7 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Over | 17c | 1,250$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.86 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 24c | 1,239$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.19 | 2,025 | 43.7%884 W · 1,141 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 76c | 777.9$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.7 | 397 | 46.9%186 W · 211 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 24c | 773.65$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.68 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 10c | 654.97$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.19 | 1,543 | 40.1%618 W · 925 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 77c | 400$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 239 | 47.7%114 W · 125 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 21c | 285.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 152 | 36.8%56 W · 96 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ab…ff0cbacked Under | 77c | 104.01$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 23c | 100.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 600 | 41.8%251 W · 349 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa237…d59abacked Under | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbf…6631backed Over | 12c | 97.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f3…9b44backed Over | 24c | 62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18f6…b00bbacked Under | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1c…dc02backed Over | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2269…6304backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ad…18f4backed Under | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Under | 79c | 27.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 88 | 68.2%60 W · 28 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 76cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59cf…71dabacked Under | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e6…a6edbacked Under | 79c | 15.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sporting CP vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Sporting CP vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Sporting CP vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sporting CP vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Sporting CP vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)Sporting CP won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.