Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa36bc67c7d95427f5a054bce6ac1d3e59bfcc5b3e3959c229828528dd8ab833

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Sporting CPof Paris Saint-Germain FC, Sporting CP
Resolved: Jan 20, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $55,662
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $54,019

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,662 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Champions League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4133…5e70backed Sporting CP	67c	8,627$5,768 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,859.23	582	48.8%284 W · 298 L	+2.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Sporting CP	68c	3,350$2,264 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,085.62	1,994	43.9%875 W · 1,119 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Sporting CP	66c	3,223$2,118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,104.55	338	51.5%174 W · 164 L	-8.8wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc198…6d2cbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC	34c	2,941$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	31	38.7%12 W · 19 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5a…87efbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC	34c	2,916$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	43	41.9%18 W · 25 L	+5.4wins	+0.13per pick	29cpaid	+104.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Paris Saint-Germain FC	28c	1,573$445 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$444.86	1,511	40.2%608 W · 903 L	-6.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-16%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x57c8…e832backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	34c	1,471$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3273…5a11backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	34c	1,459$496 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$496	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	+23.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9644…d03bbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC	34c	1,271$432 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$432.03	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+0.8wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+10%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Paris Saint-Germain FC	31c	1,094$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340	219	38.4%84 W · 135 L	+8.0wins	+0.04per pick	35cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa35b…60e9backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	29c	1,000$290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$290	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-1.9wins	-0.09per pick	28cpaid	-59.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Sporting CP	66c	963.34$636 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$327.53	206	44.7%92 W · 114 L	-7.3wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC	33c	712.98$233 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232.7	48	27.1%13 W · 35 L	-3.9wins	-0.08per pick	35cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x45d9…a89abacked Paris Saint-Germain FC	29c	646.94$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.61	35	42.9%15 W · 20 L	+3.8wins	+0.11per pick	32cpaid	+40.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ee4…8c98backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	33c	606.06$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	73	43.8%32 W · 41 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed Sporting CP	68c	590.99$402 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$189.12	79	46.8%37 W · 42 L	+4.4wins	+0.06per pick	41cpaid	+12.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d40…e36cbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC	34c	588.24$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	27	37%10 W · 17 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC	34c	572$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.48	161	44.1%71 W · 90 L	-13.8wins	-0.09per pick	53cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb269…6adebacked Paris Saint-Germain FC	34c	474.65$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.38	50	32%16 W · 34 L	-4.0wins	-0.08per pick	40cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c37…2994backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	33c	454.55$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.3wins	-0.22per pick	55cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0180…b8cdbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC	34c	441.18$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	38	44.7%17 W · 21 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe70c…c938backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	30c	401.81$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.51	83	49.4%41 W · 42 L	+8.2wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	+60%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe500…4b37backed Sporting CP	69c	323.06$224 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98.86	34	58.8%20 W · 14 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa47f…dfb1backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	34c	294.12$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	+1.5wins	+0.11per pick	18cpaid	+95.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	29c	188$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.13	159	38.4%61 W · 98 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Sporting CP	66c	182.85$121 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.17	597	41.7%249 W · 348 L	-18.3wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84f6…2e01backed Sporting CP	66c	175.71$116 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.74	33	57.6%19 W · 14 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ad7…c097backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	30c	166.67$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	+3.2wins	+0.13per pick	33cpaid	+47.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b32…8052backed Sporting CP	67c	162.69$109 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.69	34	41.2%14 W · 20 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce28…51bfbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC	35c	159.29$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.75	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.17per pick	42cpaid	-54.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0cff…15d1backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	33c	150$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.5	61	44.3%27 W · 34 L	+3.5wins	+0.06per pick	39cpaid	+28.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x662a…77b7backed Sporting CP	67c	149.25$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.25	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.4wins	+0.36per pick	39cpaid	+143.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4266…0e08backed Sporting CP	67c	149.25$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.25	47	17%8 W · 39 L	-3.2wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	-50.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x05f5…544fbacked Sporting CP	67c	149.25$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.25	12	75%9 W · 3 L	+1.5wins	+0.12per pick	63cpaid	+15.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc758…8574backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	36c	148.34$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	44	27.3%12 W · 32 L	-7.4wins	-0.17per pick	44cpaid	-51.3%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x2b2d…379dbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC	34c	147.06$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	36	38.9%14 W · 22 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	+25.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7794…52e5backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	34c	147.06$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.20per pick	47cpaid	+25.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9b1…242fbacked Sporting CP	68c	147.06$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.06	96	44.8%43 W · 53 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	34c	147.06$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	201	33.8%68 W · 133 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f8c…2157backed Sporting CP	66c	145.2$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.37	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ca…0d75backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	36c	138.89$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	28	32.1%9 W · 19 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c0b…43cbbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC	32c	103.5$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.1	139	31.7%44 W · 95 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebb1…e7afbacked Sporting CP	68c	100$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	60cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ef…c822backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	36c	100$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	34	64.7%22 W · 12 L	+4.0wins	+0.12per pick	53cpaid	+23.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5422…6c3fbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC	27c	100$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	77	44.2%34 W · 43 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9073…13b3backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	34c	88.24$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	56	55.4%31 W · 25 L	+4.7wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe361…bf48backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	35c	85.71$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	50	34%17 W · 33 L	+3.1wins	+0.06per pick	28cpaid	+34.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc85f…15f8backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	34c	85.29$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	38	31.6%12 W · 26 L	-3.0wins	-0.08per pick	40cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	34c	78$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.52	380	43.9%167 W · 213 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabc8…fd71backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	23c	68.54$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.99	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9916…e93bbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC	33c	60.61$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-1.1wins	-0.10per pick	28cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	33c	60$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.5	223	56.1%125 W · 98 L	+13.1wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	34c	57.4$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.52	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x284e…ddb2backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	30c	52$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.44	44	50%22 W · 22 L	+3.4wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+15.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf2fd…49eebacked Paris Saint-Germain FC	34c	50.41$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.14	17	64.7%11 W · 6 L	+1.7wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+24.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x46ca…2566backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	30c	50.12$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.37per pick	37cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f1f…8045backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	36c	50$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-3.0wins	-0.19per pick	50cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1dbf…6631backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	31c	49.4$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.44	45	33.3%15 W · 30 L	-3.8wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-31.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd2bf…231fbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC	33c	47.42$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.65	32	43.8%14 W · 18 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5700…a854backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	34c	44.12$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	34	29.4%10 W · 24 L	-4.8wins	-0.14per pick	44cpaid	-20%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x04b3…ad8dbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC	34c	44.12$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	53	58.5%31 W · 22 L	+8.1wins	+0.15per pick	43cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	62+0.10 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	33c	42.14$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.02	68	17.6%12 W · 56 L	-8.3wins	-0.12per pick	30cpaid	-47.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x75fd…9a86backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	32c	41.5$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.28	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92b5…2defbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC	33c	40$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	90	44.4%40 W · 50 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f31…e308backed Sporting CP	67c	37.31$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.31	20	60%12 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	59cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3ffa…f2cfbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC	30c	34.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.38	45	26.7%12 W · 33 L	-5.0wins	-0.11per pick	38cpaid	-50%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9c06…84a9backed Paris Saint-Germain FC	35c	31.43$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.14per pick	53cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd847…62bbbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC	33c	30.32$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.13	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	47cpaid	-32%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f6c…08bfbacked Sporting CP	67c	30$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.9	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	-6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x157a…e4a3backed Sporting CP	67c	29.85$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.85	51	60.8%31 W · 20 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	58cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Sporting CP	67c	28.2$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.25	116	50%58 W · 58 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf7a2…1bc7backed Sporting CP	79c	25.32$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.32	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+0.9wins	+0.28per pick	72cpaid	+40.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9ad…44febacked Sporting CP	66c	20$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.8	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.15per pick	51cpaid	+29.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe026…0404backed Sporting CP	67c	15.6$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.15	25	56%14 W · 11 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	60cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x128f…47afbacked Sporting CP	80c	15$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3	16	62.5%10 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	65cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)this page
Sporting CP vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Sporting CP vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5Over won
Sporting CP vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5Over won
Sporting CP vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Sporting CP vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event