Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3614c9d7f2a1dd8b401be293baa17e6fae56fd04a815a466c6ff88a528030fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,227
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,202
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,227 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4d5f…b380backed Yes | 7c | 403.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 19c | 373.73$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.16 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 324$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 17c | 297.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.73 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38aa…53a6backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 22c | 153.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc0…1912backed Yes | 18c | 149.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 161 | 16.1%26 W · 135 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd248…5551backed No | 79c | 138.63$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…f6cebacked Yes | 22c | 136.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 77c | 129.02$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 22c | 120.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…aef2backed Yes | 25c | 119.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 102 | 28.4%29 W · 73 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x851d…a743backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 76c | 97.87$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 14c | 97.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eaa…3561backed Yes | 24c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 21c | 82.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 19c | 81.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 19c | 79.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 77c | 76$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 22c | 52.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…9074backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 48.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 80c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 77c | 44.34$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa423…7936backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…6cc3backed No | 79c | 37.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 77c | 36.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 78c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 79c | 25.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbc…1d9ebacked No | 78c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 115 | 69.6%80 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa921…f0eabacked No | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 93 | 62.4%58 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 19.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on May 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.