Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9133dcc7d359a890a2e5fbdeeb17639680cb0336214554729f33ee32613ea28b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,762
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,547
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,762 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1851…ae47backed No | 0c | 27,304$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.81 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x884a…aa34backed No | 0c | 5,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 2c | 1,269$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 10c | 1,252$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.61 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 37c | 1,191$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.46 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 4c | 877.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 72c | 546.04$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.71 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 59c | 308.49$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.99 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed No | 17c | 258.73$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.79 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 31c | 258.29$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.33 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 30c | 227.05$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.72 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 67c | 197.1$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.99 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 28c | 186.38$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.38 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 160$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.6 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 34c | 152$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.39 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 25c | 150$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.1 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…2ebfbacked Yes | 80c | 146.55$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.53 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 26c | 139$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.15 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a4a4backed Yes | 33c | 120.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.44 | 192 | 17.2%33 W · 159 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 73c | 116.79$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.1 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 66c | 111$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 27c | 109.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 21c | 106.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 45c | 100.12$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 99.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 34c | 97.36$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 96$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.86 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 35c | 90.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 90$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 37c | 88.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 33c | 82.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.39 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 33c | 79.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.23 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 57c | 78.32$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 72.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.91 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked Yes | 23c | 64.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…ba19backed No | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 80c | 59$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8505…6240backed Yes | 27c | 51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.23 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60c…cdeebacked Yes | 33c | 47.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +103.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 47c | 44.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…b380backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 37c | 37.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 47c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cae…e877backed Yes | 35c | 34.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 44c | 33.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 75c | 33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…123abacked Yes | 36c | 32.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 68c | 32.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 78c | 31.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 30.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 29.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 68c | 29.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd89d…d6b7backed No | 72c | 27.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 70c | 27.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 67c | 24.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 80c | 22.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 70c | 20.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 70c | 19.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 65c | 19.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 70c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…f8c6backed No | 71c | 16.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 72c | 15.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddd…cab9backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 75cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on May 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.