WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-13.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3788d4ca6644750314eabf44c7e2d1008f66506e553ff352f24cf2f329dd58b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Dreamof Atlanta Dream, Connecticut Sun
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,790
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,419
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,790 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Atlanta Dream | 51c | 6,811$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,310.89 | 230 | 49.6%114 W · 116 L | -13.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Connecticut Sun | 49c | 5,893$2,888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,887.64 | 227 | 48.5%110 W · 117 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Connecticut Sun | 48c | 2,292$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100.21 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…f6a3backed Atlanta Dream | 52c | 1,750$910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Connecticut Sun | 46c | 711.91$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.79 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…24eebacked Atlanta Dream | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…5d3abacked Atlanta Dream | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Connecticut Sun | 48c | 240.64$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.48 | 188 | 44.1%83 W · 105 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Connecticut Sun | 61c | 228.34$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.54 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked Atlanta Dream | 24c | 171.42$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.28 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Connecticut Sun | 48c | 131.65$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.76 | 196 | 46.9%92 W · 104 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd33a…1fe2backed Connecticut Sun | 64c | 113$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Atlanta Dream | 34c | 110.88$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.44 | 209 | 47.4%99 W · 110 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Connecticut Sun | 52c | 103.65$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Atlanta Dream | 38c | 98.97$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.14 | 123 | 55.3%68 W · 55 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd37…e117backed Atlanta Dream | 42c | 85.63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.63 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Connecticut Sun | 68c | 79.81$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.27 | 108 | 58.3%63 W · 45 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Atlanta Dream | 23c | 70.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.76 | 411 | 47%193 W · 218 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Atlanta Dream | 44c | 62.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9382…4ee3backed Atlanta Dream | 52c | 61.51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0e…8177backed Atlanta Dream | 52c | 57.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Connecticut Sun | 55c | 56.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 610 | 42.5%259 W · 351 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Atlanta Dream | 40c | 50.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Atlanta Dream | 52c | 44.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | -13.5wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Atlanta Dream | 34c | 41.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 248 | 52.4%130 W · 118 L | +10.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Connecticut Sun | 49c | 41.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Connecticut Sun | 47c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Connecticut Sun | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 236 | 44.9%106 W · 130 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Connecticut Sun | 48c | 21.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 137 | 45.3%62 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…f3ebbacked Connecticut Sun | 49c | 20.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Dream (-13.5)this page
- Connecticut Sun vs. Atlanta DreamAtlanta Dream won
- Connecticut Sun vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 157.5Over won
- Connecticut Sun vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 158.5Over won
- Connecticut Sun vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 159.5Over won
- Connecticut Sun vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 160.5Over won
- Connecticut Sun vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 161.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Dream (-14.5)Atlanta Dream won
- Spread: Atlanta Dream (-15.5)Atlanta Dream won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.