Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd392d18b1aadd3d0e9be7afac8ca81226414d1e4ff71c0e57ac9e381b1d8d07b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,542
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,139
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,542 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 43c | 918.53$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.59 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 32c | 547.41$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.43 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 450.55$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.8 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 17c | 341.5$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.36 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 66c | 309.63$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.59 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 304.67$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.04 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 37c | 285.69$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.81 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 283.06$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.1 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 32c | 277.02$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.53 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 19c | 261.65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.37 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 59c | 257.54$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 76c | 242.32$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.72 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 17c | 226$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 23c | 204.04$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.72 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 192.95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.7 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 38c | 181.02$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.03 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 53c | 176.05$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.26 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ad…c303backed Yes | 55c | 176.05$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.22 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +4.8wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 73c | 175.4$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.86 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 20c | 142.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.99 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 128.51$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 50c | 128.13$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.48 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3d…d3e9backed Yes | 79c | 126.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 79 | 68.4%54 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 60c | 122.09$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.75 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 119.5$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 34c | 115.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 19c | 111.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.21 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 52c | 106.87$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.57 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 28c | 105.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.61 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3be5…bc8bbacked Yes | 79c | 96.92$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed Yes | 19c | 94.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.51 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed Yes | 18c | 91.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.38 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 22c | 87.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.95 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 58c | 80.21$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 76c | 75.64$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.78 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 78c | 74$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 62c | 71.78$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 20c | 71.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.59 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e6…0210backed No | 34c | 68.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 23c | 67.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.14 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 66.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 34c | 66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 32c | 64.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.43 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 41c | 61.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2897backed Yes | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 23c | 54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.64 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 47c | 52.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…a8d7backed Yes | 35c | 51.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 21c | 49.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.94 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 58c | 47.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 53c | 47.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 29c | 47.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 37c | 47.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 68c | 44.72$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 80c | 39.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 37.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 57c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1a…8572backed Yes | 54c | 35.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 51c | 32.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…8378backed Yes | 78c | 29.06$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c41…500dbacked No | 79c | 25.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 48c | 23.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 55c | 20.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 76c | 16.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…63f8backed No | 78c | 14.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -4.9wins | -0.13per pick | 65cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a38…d420backed No | 80c | 14.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C or below on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.