South American Leagues · resolved market
Will SE Palmeiras vs. CA Paranaense end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd39520fc9abdd2f33935f1bc30652a3c56c52a996562c7a3d4bf488a51a0b15c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,119
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,045
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,119 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 76c | 4,289$3,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,031.57 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 27c | 1,252$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.96 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 24c | 618.84$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.86 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 17c | 360.27$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.01 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 79c | 347.67$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.08 | 375 | 40%150 W · 225 L | -16.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Yes | 25c | 314.11$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.86 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 6c | 268.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 448 | 43.8%196 W · 252 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe43…8f09backed No | 76c | 235.73$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.57 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 24c | 213.42$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.22 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef20…c46abacked Yes | 56c | 194.77$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.8 | 38 | 81.6%31 W · 7 L | +10.2wins | +0.27per pick | 55cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x01c9…4386backed Yes | 20c | 190.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Yes | 25c | 166.08$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 449 | 59%265 W · 184 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Yes | 25c | 164$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 341 | 55.1%188 W · 153 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Yes | 9c | 157.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 411 | 45.5%187 W · 224 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Yes | 25c | 145.49$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.61 | 193 | 56%108 W · 85 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Yes | 25c | 143.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 477 | 58.1%277 W · 200 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 21c | 136.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 256 | 25%64 W · 192 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Yes | 25c | 135.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…0ac5backed Yes | 37c | 129.71$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed No | 58c | 112.17$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.27 | 112 | 30.4%34 W · 78 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -41%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 112.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed No | 78c | 112.03$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 363 | 39.9%145 W · 218 L | -16.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8561…337bbacked Yes | 19c | 100.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f0f…e25fbacked Yes | 19c | 98.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…c7a6backed Yes | 26c | 95.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…e91cbacked Yes | 26c | 91.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Yes | 25c | 86.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 261 | 60.9%159 W · 102 L | +20.4wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 79c | 84.9$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…1583backed Yes | 14c | 81.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…2fc9backed Yes | 24c | 79.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Yes | 25c | 73.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 388 | 61.3%238 W · 150 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 24c | 67.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 23c | 66.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 286 | 51.7%148 W · 138 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc311…c154backed No | 76c | 64.84$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 82 | 67.1%55 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 17c | 59.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 79c | 58.27$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 52c | 58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 168 | 42.9%72 W · 96 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked No | 49c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 151 | 43%65 W · 86 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked No | 48c | 46.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 191 | 50.3%96 W · 95 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 24c | 41.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x654d…ba8fbacked Yes | 24c | 41.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa590…271cbacked No | 76c | 41.38$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +115.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 62c | 26.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e35…ee1abacked No | 77c | 25.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe36…9413backed No | 75c | 16.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 76c | 16.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SE Palmeiras vs. CA Paranaense end in a draw?this page
- Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-04-19?No won
- Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-04-19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.