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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on August 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,854
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,094

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,854 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes7c359.29$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.281,11923.7%265 W · 854 L+74.2wins+0.07per pick17cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1ef1…4fa2backed Yes37c347.28$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13030%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No62c338.38$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.31,90155.9%1,062 W · 839 L-33.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes35c324.71$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.5843153.1%229 W · 202 L+25.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked No57c270.73$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.7859625%149 W · 447 L-19.5wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No49c267.93$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.821,06750.7%541 W · 526 L+29.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No78c256.74$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.744,44253.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L-17.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes46c216.6$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011527.8%32 W · 83 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid+7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No79c190$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.15,83660%3,502 W · 2,334 L-112.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ec7…12f7backed No54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.192532%8 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-35.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes25c180.01$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2810,95237.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L+432.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeec7…2fa1backed No61c161.11$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.836864.7%44 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No75c150.73$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.212,25057%1,282 W · 968 L+65.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4bc5…a968backed Yes21c120.23$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25850%4 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2da9…0a3cbacked Yes14c107.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-33.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5695…60e9backed Yes46c106.38$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9325653.9%138 W · 118 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No71c102.53$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.942,22356.1%1,247 W · 976 L+54.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5284…27f5backed Yes40c102.08$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1927944.4%124 W · 155 L-14.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x637d…7df1backed Yes48c99.99$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483855.3%21 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes23c96$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9494044.8%421 W · 519 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes50c94.07$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.592,34058.7%1,373 W · 967 L-4.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No77c93.13$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.65,62547.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6546…04e1backed Yes46c92.71$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4341443.2%179 W · 235 L+0.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61dd…cbd8backed No61c80.56$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.426261.3%38 W · 24 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes36c80$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.885548.7%416 W · 439 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf733…297dbacked Yes18c76.33$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8320711.6%24 W · 183 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick13cpaid+6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b67…8c99backed No68c69.47$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.923778.4%29 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick71cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcaa4…eae5backed Yes29c68.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+38.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6e2…06f4backed Yes23c68.38$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7324248.8%118 W · 124 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes36c66.82$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7358850.9%299 W · 289 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes47c66.31$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.059,96245.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L-309.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes52c66.08$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3615926.4%42 W · 117 L-9.9wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-21.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xda58…6009backed No71c63$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.279160.4%55 W · 36 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-5.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfca6…6595backed Yes51c60$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.612064.2%77 W · 43 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb884…19c1backed Yes43c60$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.87940.5%32 W · 47 L-7.3wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-23.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No69c59.65$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.291773.2%671 W · 246 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes26c58.42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9160032%192 W · 408 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes34c57.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.644,03235.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L+42.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes44c57.72$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.274,73947.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L-186.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4c3…f0a1backed Yes24c52.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.852512%3 W · 22 L-4.8wins-0.19per pick31cpaid-73.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No79c52$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.85,48956%3,075 W · 2,414 L-123.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6660…c786backed No80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.22250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-37.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee2b…a97abacked Yes41c48.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201776.5%13 W · 4 L+4.5wins+0.27per pick50cpaid+51.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x3f1d…56a3backed No53c47.94$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.296651.5%34 W · 32 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x549c…100abacked Yes44c45.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9912938.8%50 W · 79 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe2d…da35backed No48c45.26$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.6234667.6%234 W · 112 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa397…7817backed Yes45c44.84$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020255.4%112 W · 90 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No72c44.19$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.482,28358.3%1,331 W · 952 L+85.1wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc39d…adafbacked Yes44c44.14$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.424045%18 W · 22 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No49c43.34$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.31,42131.1%442 W · 979 L-93.8wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-21.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1b72…42b9backed Yes43c41$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6385535.7%305 W · 550 L+1.9wins0.00per pick35cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8845…360ebacked Yes54c40.8$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0319535.9%70 W · 125 L-39.3wins-0.20per pick56cpaid-35.9%equal weight30-0.18 edge/pick
0x29ed…a8dabacked Yes47c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.62751.9%14 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x90aa…bb09backed Yes39c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.61921.1%4 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-26.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed No76c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.61,67137.9%633 W · 1,038 L+25.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No66c37.86$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.0212,97520.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L-2,698.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-65.3%equal weight27-0.21 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No65c36.77$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.042,17653.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L+36.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1c…3f79backed No50c36.3$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.2857559.7%343 W · 232 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72c8…c4b6backed Yes56c35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.65563.6%35 W · 20 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes42c34.09$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3246736.8%172 W · 295 L+1.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed Yes42c33.33$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142,46735.7%880 W · 1,587 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes47c31$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5755238.8%214 W · 338 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No78c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.54,62758.3%2,696 W · 1,931 L-114.2wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x414a…253ebacked No75c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.66675.8%50 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcef4…d4c9backed Yes46c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.83743.2%16 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c29.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.82,69147.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L+48.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf361…08f6backed No58c29.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.69959.6%59 W · 40 L+4.4wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No62c28.95$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.953,64953.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L+83.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x754b…d06abacked No48c28.61$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1524570.6%173 W · 72 L+22.3wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+17.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked No56c28.6$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4716958.6%99 W · 70 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No48c26.33$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.754,46765.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L+14.9wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd846…b233backed Yes49c26.27$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.811050%5 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+29.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbed…a665backed No54c26.09$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128061.3%49 W · 31 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29bf…86f1backed No77c25.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.96875%6 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick74cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5425…4c65backed No74c25.32$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.5828952.6%152 W · 137 L-0.4wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf668…e47abacked Yes46c25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.519831.8%63 W · 135 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb9b…1e2abacked Yes45c24.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.253426.5%9 W · 25 L-4.0wins-0.12per pick38cpaid-32.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No56c23.71$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.462,29559.3%1,360 W · 935 L+118.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No57c23.09$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.862,23356%1,250 W · 983 L+47.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2799…b1e1backed No58c21.89$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.191963.2%12 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick63cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No67c21.19$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.972,22659.1%1,316 W · 910 L+110.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed No54c20.87$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.61,15857.1%661 W · 497 L-45.6wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e5e…35c9backed No63c19.76$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.3419750.8%100 W · 97 L-15.4wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-14.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No67c16.68$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.5898651.1%504 W · 482 L-49.2wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.