Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59b681ded6648080863af8b481b15c24e3b23b69bb947bdb4ddfa82dbc62d82e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,216
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,874
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,216 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 6c | 2,159$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.44 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 26c | 1,445$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,070.51 | 172 | 24.4%42 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 79c | 991.11$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.85 | 8,337 | 49.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L | +271.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 76c | 562.98$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.05 | 124 | 41.9%52 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 30c | 520.24$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.09 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 461$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.32 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 410.77$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.73 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 50c | 398.2$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.04 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 38c | 394.25$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.78 | 431 | 53.1%229 W · 202 L | +25.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 29c | 287.31$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.44 | 138 | 61.6%85 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 20c | 272$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.33 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 42c | 227$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.13 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 27c | 214.7$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.48 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 48c | 208.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.35 | 637 | 50.1%319 W · 318 L | +32.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 50c | 204.69$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.19 | 621 | 46.2%287 W · 334 L | +40.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e48…9143backed Yes | 38c | 183.12$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.92 | 91 | 38.5%35 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef1…4fa2backed No | 57c | 175.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 15c | 171.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 19c | 151.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 596 | 25%149 W · 447 L | -19.5wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 69c | 140.59$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 74c | 134.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 39c | 133$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.66 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 18c | 127.36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.3 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 122.14$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 24c | 118.91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.16 | 767 | 27%207 W · 560 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 22c | 117.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 28c | 112$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 1,451 | 52.3%759 W · 692 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 34c | 103.15$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 921 | 45.6%420 W · 501 L | -29.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 254 | 40.9%104 W · 150 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 940 | 44.8%421 W · 519 L | +16.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.99 | 1,119 | 23.7%265 W · 854 L | +74.2wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 98.72$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.6 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 43c | 95.22$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.09 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 29c | 94.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 40c | 89.15$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.59 | 547 | 38.6%211 W · 336 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 27c | 88.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.89 | 107 | 35.5%38 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 38c | 87.07$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 26c | 84.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.16 | 171 | 31%53 W · 118 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 21c | 83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.57 | 1,196 | 50.8%608 W · 588 L | -27.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 18c | 81.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.44 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…fc25backed Yes | 51c | 80.27$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 19c | 80.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.01 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0022…c966backed Yes | 21c | 80$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 18c | 78.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.73 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e1…c79cbacked Yes | 46c | 76.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 23c | 75.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 1,421 | 31.1%442 W · 979 L | -93.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 30c | 75.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 71c | 75.01$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.97 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 71c | 73.95$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.43 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 62c | 70.1$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 795 | 63.5%505 W · 290 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 58c | 70.09$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 260 | 38.5%100 W · 160 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked No | 78c | 70$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.3 | 172 | 34.9%60 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x830b…c771backed Yes | 27c | 70$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd73e…4b96backed Yes | 23c | 69.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.57 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +8.2wins | +0.19per pick | 29cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 56c | 69.31$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 59c | 68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 279 | 44.4%124 W · 155 L | -14.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 59c | 66.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9da1…109abacked Yes | 21c | 65.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 48cpaid | +205.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes | 26c | 64.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.96 | 159 | 26.4%42 W · 117 L | -9.9wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 40c | 61.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.57 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x159f…bc63backed Yes | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed Yes | 25c | 60.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.05 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | -11.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 632 | 47.3%299 W · 333 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ab…d374backed Yes | 80c | 58.93$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 71c | 58.71$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.87 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…fd19backed Yes | 18c | 55.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 52c | 54.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 197 | 55.8%110 W · 87 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd57f…e0f8backed Yes | 52c | 53.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…a665backed No | 73c | 53$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.71 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 66c | 52.36$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 26c | 51.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.42 | 432 | 43.8%189 W · 243 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 671 | 38.9%261 W · 410 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…8c99backed No | 65c | 51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 40c | 50.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0018…83a4backed No | 40c | 50.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 374 | 67.4%252 W · 122 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 1,710 | 60.8%1,039 W · 671 L | -22.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…0550backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc4…a136backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbded…48b7backed Yes | 61c | 49.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 109 | 54.1%59 W · 50 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3079…7b77backed Yes | 75c | 48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -6.2wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed No | 59c | 45.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 38c | 41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 855 | 35.7%305 W · 550 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 48c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ed…a8dabacked Yes | 36c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 269 | 35.7%96 W · 173 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 42c | 39.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9b…1e2abacked Yes | 43c | 39.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 73c | 37.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 1,632 | 60.7%990 W · 642 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 57c | 35.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | +8.0wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes | 50c | 32.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 37c | 32.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…6307backed Yes | 53c | 32.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed No | 75c | 32.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 36c | 31.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81fe…80ecbacked No | 63c | 31.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on August 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on August 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.