Earnings · resolved market
Will Palantir say "Warp Speed" during earnings call?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3c228392e3ee8a4d317e713820c53a72295d2b6f4d468bd8aef92c92d272273
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,250
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,092
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,250 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked No | 20c | 400$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.35 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4d…1c7ebacked No | 18c | 335$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd850…e26cbacked No | 27c | 177.75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.61 | 109 | 33.9%37 W · 72 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 18c | 166.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.76 | 760 | 37.6%286 W · 474 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 20c | 150$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.5 | 179 | 35.2%63 W · 116 L | -14.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94df…e399backed No | 23c | 120.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +42%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ce…a061backed Yes | 78c | 102.56$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ad…9e5fbacked No | 30c | 100.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7975…d3f7backed Yes | 77c | 85$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.45 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked Yes | 70c | 83.94$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.7 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 77c | 80$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff5…d165backed No | 35c | 67.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +63%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbea0…e19dbacked No | 19c | 62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.22 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 76c | 57.59$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 578 | 38.9%225 W · 353 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 77c | 50.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.57 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x08ef…e466backed Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 74c | 47.53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Yes | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +10.1wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 72c | 25.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa2…c75fbacked Yes | 76c | 21.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6936…a45ebacked Yes | 76c | 13.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Palantir say "Warp Speed" during earnings call?this page
- Will Palantir say "Anthropic" or "Claude" during earnings call?No won
- Will Palantir say "Apollo" during earnings call?No won
- Will Palantir say "Enterprise" 5+ times during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Palantir say "Healthcare" during earnings call?No won
- Will Palantir say "Insurance" during earnings call?No won
- Will Palantir say "Slop" or "AI Slop" during earnings call?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.